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57%
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CSKA Moskva vs Stavropol: match prediction on 24 September 2026
CSKA Moskva
Stavropol
Prediction for
Win: CSKA Moskva
67%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
62%
1
38%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 22 Sep, 17:37- ЦСКА Москва — 4. place, 6 points after 3 games (3 wins, 0 losses)
- Ставрополь — 10. place, 1 points after 4 games (0 wins, 3 draws, 1 losses)
- ЦСКА Москва, last 5 games: 5 wins, 0 losses
- Ставрополь, last 5 games: 0 wins, 1 draws, 4 losses
- Head-to-head: 9 games, ЦСКА Москва — 5, 1 draws, Ставрополь — 3
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
CSKA Moskva
WWWWW
5 wins
Stavropol
LDLLL
1 draw · 4 losses
Head to head 10
6CSKA Moskva
1Draw
3Stavropol
- 7 FebStavropol — CSKA Moskva29:33
- 1 FebCSKA Moskva — Stavropol30:28
- 26 JanStavropol — CSKA Moskva25:30
- 19 Dec 2024Stavropol — CSKA Moskva27:26
- 14 Sep 2024CSKA Moskva — Stavropol36:28
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 22 Sep, 17:37CSKA Moskva win
I see no reason for CSKA Moskva to drop points here. They arrive with five straight victories and a clear advantage over a Stavropol side that has failed to win any of their four league matches.
The visitors have not taken a victory in their last five outings. Four defeats and a single draw leave them adrift at 10th place. Their recent results tell the story: losses to Dinamo Astrahan, Krasnodar, and Zenit Saint Petersburg, with only Permskie Medvedi managing to hold them to a 31:31 stalemate. They have conceded 156 goals in that span while finding the net 138 times.
CSKA have been in opposite form. Five wins, 158 goals scored, 127 conceded. They beat Zilant Kazan 30:26 away, UOR No.2 Moscow 37:25 at home, and Kaustik Volgograd 38:35 on their own patch. Even the Supercup victory over Chekhovskiye Medvedi 26:22 and the 27:19 win against Zenit Saint Petersburg in June fit the pattern. They are 5th in the table with 6 points from three matches.
The head-to-head record favours the hosts. In nine meetings over recent years CSKA have won five, Stavropol three, with one draw. The most recent encounter on 7 February ended 33:29 to CSKA at Stavropol. Only the 27:26 result on 19 December 2024 went the other way.
The model expects CSKA to score 31.1 goals and Stavropol 26.4. That spread suggests a comfortable margin rather than a tight contest. The draw probability sits at 0% according to the model's calculations.
A draw would be the scenario that undermines this prediction. Stavropol have drawn three of their four league matches, showing they can grind out results when needed. If they manage to absorb pressure and see the game out, the outcome changes. But given their defensive frailties — conceding an average of 31.2 goals per match in their last five — that seems unlikely.
I do not see any team news that would alter the picture. No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side. The venue is not specified, but CSKA's home record in these fixtures has been strong.
The match kicks off at 16:30 UTC on 24 September. CSKA need to maintain their momentum and take the points.