Hapoel Ashdod vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: match prediction on 18 September 2026

Hapoel Ashdod are the clear favourites for Saturday's Division 1 clash, and the model backs Hapoel at 85% confidence. They have won all three head-to-head meetings this season, Maccabi Tel Aviv have lost every game in their last five, and the model expects the hosts to edge the visitors 33 to 31.8 points.

The home side have taken nine points from their last five matches, with three victories and two defeats. The visitors have not managed a single point from five games, including two heavy European Cup defeats to Bern on 12 and 13 September, losing 25-40 and 25-39.

Maccabi's slide has been consistent. They have lost five straight matches across all competitions, scoring 136 points while conceding 169. The gap is not just in results but in volume: they averaged 27.2 points per game in their last five compared to Hapoel's 30.0. The European Cup losses were particularly damaging, with the two matches against Bern accounting for 90 points conceded in 50 scored.

The head-to-head record tells the same story. In six meetings over the past year and a half, Hapoel Ashdod have won four and lost twice. The most recent four clashes all came in 2026, with Hapoel winning three and Maccabi taking one victory back in November 2025. The pattern is clear: Hapoel have found a way through Maccabi's defence in every Division 1 fixture this season.

The model's expectation of 33 points for Hapoel and 31.8 for Maccabi reflects this imbalance. The model assigns 0% to a draw, factoring in Maccabi's five-game winless run and Hapoel's three wins in five. The model gives 0% probability to both sides scoring or to a high-scoring affair.

Only if Maccabi halt their slide and contain Hapoel’s attack will the model’s expectations change.