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Kielce vs MMTS Kwidzyn: match prediction on 21 September 2026
Kielce
MMTS Kwidzyn
Prediction for
Win: Kielce
85%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
85%
1
15%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 19 Sep, 17:12- Кельце — 2. place, 6 points after 2 games (2 wins, 0 losses)
- ММТС Квидзын — 8. place, 3 points after 2 games (1 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses)
- Кельце, last 5 games: 5 wins, 0 losses
- ММТС Квидзын, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 11 games, Кельце — 11, ММТС Квидзын — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Kielce
WWWWW
5 wins
MMTS Kwidzyn
WLLWW
3 wins · 2 losses
Head to head 11
11Kielce
0Draw
0MMTS Kwidzyn
- 14 FebMMTS Kwidzyn — Kielce25:38
- 4 Oct 2025Kielce — MMTS Kwidzyn38:23
- 7 Dec 2024Kielce — MMTS Kwidzyn36:26
- 31 Aug 2024MMTS Kwidzyn — Kielce21:32
- 13 Apr 2024Kielce — MMTS Kwidzyn40:25
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 19 Sep, 17:12Kielce sit third in the Superliga with six points from two, while MMTS Kwidzyn occupy eighth with three. The model puts Kielce's expected goals at 40.1 and MMTS Kwidzyn's at 21.9. The model prices a draw and BTTS at zero.
Kielce have won every game they have played this season. Their last five matches brought five victories, 188 goals scored and 144 conceded. They beat Kolstad 36:29 away in the Champions League and Piotrkowianin Piotrkow 46:30 on the road in the Superliga. HC Kriens-Luzern fell 30:29 at home to them, Kalisz lost 37:31 away, and BM Sinfín went down 39:25 in a friendly.
MMTS Kwidzyn have been more uneven. Three wins and two defeats in their last five matches produced 171 goals for and 141 against. They beat Kalisz 34:24 at home and Wisła Płock 46:19 away in the Superliga. But they dropped points to Wybrzeże Gdańsk 29:35 and Karvina 27:29 in friendlies, and won narrowly against Karvina 35:34.
The head-to-head record is one-sided. Kielce have won all six meetings over the past years. The margins were 13, 15, 11, 15, 12 and 15 goals, averaging around 12. The most recent clash on 14 February 2026 ended 25:38 in Kielce's favour away from home. MMTS Kwidzyn have not found a way past them.
This conclusion stops holding if MMTS Kwidzyn can match Kielce's intensity for a full 60 minutes or if Kielce suffer unexpected absences. The model's figures assume a standard fixture. An early red card or a key player missing would change the dynamic. Without those variables, Kielce win by a comfortable margin.
The expected goals, the form, and the head-to-head all point in the same direction.