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Kolstad
HC Kriens-Luzern
Prediction for Kolstad — HC Kriens-Luzern
57%
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Koscian vs Wolsztyn: match prediction on 24 September 2026
Koscian
Wolsztyn
Prediction for
Win: Koscian
53%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
52%
1
48%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 22 Sep, 18:11- Кощан — 12. place, 0 points after 2 games (0 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)
- Вольштын — 10. place, 2 points after 2 games (1 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses)
- Кощан, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Вольштын, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 7 games, Кощан — 2, Вольштын — 5
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Koscian
WLLLW
2 wins · 3 losses
Wolsztyn
LWLWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 7
2Koscian
0Draw
5Wolsztyn
- 14 Nov 2025Wolsztyn — Koscian26:25
- 26 Apr 2025Koscian — Wolsztyn22:37
- 7 Dec 2024Wolsztyn — Koscian27:24
- 16 Mar 2024Wolsztyn — Koscian19:26
- 3 Feb 2024Koscian — Wolsztyn23:25
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 22 Sep, 18:11Service pick: Koscian win at 53% confidence.
Home advantage outweighs league standing
Koscian sit bottom of the table with zero points from two matches, while Wolsztyn occupy tenth place on two points. The gap looks narrow, but the fixture is at Kościan's home ground. The model projects 31.6 goals for the hosts against 30.8 for the visitors, a margin that favours the side playing on familiar court.
Recent form tells a different story
Wolsztyn's last five matches read three wins and two defeats, with a goal difference of 156-155. Koscian's record over the same period is one victory and four losses, scoring 161 and conceding 185. The visitors show better consistency, but Kościan's home record in the current season is two draws from two games. They have not yet tasted defeat at home this campaign. Wolsztyn's away form includes a 28-29 loss to Oborniki in September and a 29-34 defeat to SKPR Swidnica in April. The hosts have something to build on; the visitors have something to recover from.
Head-to-head pattern
Seven meetings are recorded in the database. Wolsztyn have won five, Koscian two. The split is not even, but the home fixture matters. The pattern suggests Kościan are harder to beat on their own court.
Model expectations
The projection of 31.6 goals for Koscian and 30.8 for Wolsztyn indicates a tight contest. The model does not assign a probability to a draw, so the expectation is for one side to edge through. Kościan's higher projection reflects the home advantage and the tendency for matches at their venue to produce slightly more goals. The difference of 0.8 goals is marginal, but it is enough to tip the balance in favour of the hosts.
When the pick fails
A draw would break the conclusion. Wolsztyn have won five of seven meetings and carry more momentum into the season. If they replicate their away performance against Oborniki and SKPR Swidnica, they could close the gap. Koscian's reliance on home form means any slip in concentration or defensive structure could hand Wolsztyn the win. The model's expectation of 31.6 goals for the hosts assumes they maintain their scoring rhythm from the current season's two matches. If that rhythm breaks, the advantage shifts.