MT Melsungen vs TV Stuttgart: match prediction on 13 September 2026

MT Melsungen to win. The conclusion stops holding if Stuttgart's away scoring pattern from August carries through.

The two sides enter with identical records. MT Melsungen sit 9th on 3 points from 3 matches, while TV Stuttgart are 11th, also on 3 points with the same 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss split. Both have played 5 games recently with the same result line: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss. Melsungen have scored 154 goals in that span, Stuttgart 158. The numbers are close enough that form alone would not separate them.

What separates them is history. MT Melsungen have won 7 of the last 8 meetings, Stuttgart just 1. The most recent encounter on 26 December 2025 ended 33:28 to the home side. Before that, Stuttgart lost 29:31 away in October 2025. Even when Stuttgart won on 22 February 2024, it was by just two goals, 33:31. The pattern is clear: Melsungen control this fixture.

The model expects 26.1 goals for MT Melsungen and 29.8 for TV Stuttgart across simulated versions of this match. Draw probability is 0%, both teams scoring is 0%, and 3 or more goals in total is 0%. The figures point to a high-scoring affair where the side with more clinical finishing will prevail. Given the H2H record, that side is the home team.

The main threat to this prediction is Stuttgart's away record in August. They drew 34:34 at Hamburg and won 39:26 away at Horkheim in the DHB Pokal. If that attacking momentum translates on Saturday, and Melsungen's defence shows the vulnerability they displayed in the 33:31 loss to Fuchse Berlin on 27 August, the model's edge could disappear. A draw would suit the visitors, and given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat.