Volleyligaen Women
Prediction for Farum Women — Aalborg Volley Women
70%
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Prediction for
Win: Skara Women
71%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Form last 5 matches
Head to head 3
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 14 Oct, 18:05Skara Women are the safe pick, backed by a model that projects 32.2 goals for them against 21.7 for Boden, a ten-goal swing that the league table does not yet reflect. The conclusion breaks if Boden repeat their three straight wins in this fixture.
Skara sit second after two league games, four points from two victories, while Boden occupy ninth with two points from one win and one draw. The early standings suggest a team in control, but the head-to-head tells a different story. Boden have won all three encounters since December, including a 33-32 victory at Skara's ground in the Swedish Cup in March.
Recent form on paper looks identical. Both sides have recorded three wins and two losses across their last five matches, with Skara netting 144 goals and conceding 143, Boden 150 and 153. The numbers sit side by side, yet the model sees a gap the results do not. It expects Skara to outscore Boden by nearly eleven goals, a margin that would require Boden to fall well below their recent output.
Skara's last outing was a 28-33 defeat away to Tertnes in the EHF European League, but before that they beat IK Sävehof Women 32-30 on the road and held Helsingborg 26-21 at home. Boden's most recent game was a 27-22 win over Ystads at home, and they also won both European matches against Guardes. Neither side has shown a tendency to grind out draws—five matches each, zero draws in the last five.
The model assigns a 0% probability to a draw and 0% to both teams scoring, figures that feel absolute. They do not account for the fact that Boden have beaten Skara three times in a row, or that handball matches can swing on a single period. A Boden win would be consistent with their recent record.
The figure rests on the expected goals spread and Skara's unbeaten league start. It stops holding if Boden replicate the three-match winning streak they already hold over their opponents.