Stjarnan vs Haukar: match prediction on 11 September 2026

Haukar to win

I see Haukar as the clear favourite. They have won four of the last eight meetings between these sides, including three of the four most recent, and the model puts their expected goals at 29.2 against Stjarnan's 26.7. Haukar sit second in the table with two points from one match, while Stjarnan are eleventh on none after a draw.

Stjarnan's last five matches brought four wins and one loss, with 160 goals scored and 138 conceded. Haukar's run in the same window gave three victories and two defeats, 141 goals for and 129 against. Both sides have been scoring freely, but Haukar's away record against Stjarnan over the past few years carries more weight than Stjarnan's recent form alone.

The head-to-head has swung decisively in Haukar's favour. They won 27-25 at Stjarnan in February, 30-26 at home in October 2025, and 29-23 in February 2025. Only one of those six matches has gone to Stjarnan, a 23-22 win in December 2023. The pattern suggests Haukar know how to handle this fixture.

The model's expectation of 29.2 goals for Haukar and 26.7 for Stjarnan points to a tight contest decided by a single goal margin. The 0% draw probability in the model's output reinforces that a result is expected, and Haukar's head-to-head dominance makes them the logical choice.

This conclusion stops holding if Stjarnan replicate their December 2023 form at home, where they edged Haukar 23-22. A strong start from the hosts, combined with Haukar failing to impose their usual tempo, would shift the balance. The model's figures assume neither side has any unusual absences, and if that changes, the projection could unravel.