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UMCS Lublin vs AZS AWF Warszawa: match prediction on 20 September 2026
UMCS Lublin
AZS AWF Warszawa
Prediction for
Win: UMCS Lublin
54%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
54%
1
46%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 18 Sep, 14:01- УМСЦ Люблин — 11. place, 0 points after 1 games (0 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses)
- АЗС AWF Варшава — 8. place, 1 points after 1 games (0 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses)
- УМСЦ Люблин, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- АЗС AWF Варшава, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 4 games, УМСЦ Люблин — 0, АЗС AWF Варшава — 4
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
UMCS Lublin
WWLLW
3 wins · 2 losses
AZS AWF Warszawa
WWLLL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 4
0UMCS Lublin
0Draw
4AZS AWF Warszawa
- 29 MarUMCS Lublin — AZS AWF Warszawa26:33
- 27 Oct 2025AZS AWF Warszawa — UMCS Lublin43:40
- 11 May 2025UMCS Lublin — AZS AWF Warszawa35:37
- 11 Jan 2025AZS AWF Warszawa — UMCS Lublin28:26
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 18 Sep, 14:01AZS AWF Warszawa are the clear favourites for this encounter. The visitors have won all four meetings between these sides, including a comfortable 33:26 victory at UMCS Lublin in March 2026. The model puts them on 31.1 expected goals against 32.9 for the hosts, but the pattern of results tells a different story. A draw suits neither side given how both teams have played recently, and the visitors have consistently outscored their opponents in this fixture.
The head-to-head record is straightforward. The most recent was a 33:26 win away from home, while the other three matches produced 43:40, 35:37 and 28:26 victories for the Warsaw side. UMCS Lublin have not won a single encounter in this period.
Form offers a mixed picture. UMCS Lublin have won three of their last five matches, including a 45:37 victory over SMS ZPRP Plock, but lost their opening game of the season 30:33 away to Wielun. AZS AWF Warszawa have won two and lost three in their last five, starting the season with a 26:28 home defeat to KS Warszawianka. Both sides have scored more than they conceded in their recent matches, with UMCS Lublin netting 181 goals to 170 against across five games.
The model expects goals at both ends. UMCS Lublin are projected to score 32.9 goals while AZS AWF Warszawa should find the net 31.1 times. The draw probability sits at zero percent in the calculation, though the model has no way of accounting for the visitors' dominance in this fixture. Both teams have shown they can score freely against each other, with the last four meetings producing an average of 69.5 goals per match.
This prediction falls apart if UMCS Lublin find a way to contain the visitors' attack. The hosts have scored heavily in some matches, including 39:36 and 45:37 victories, showing they can compete when firing. A draw would also undermine the conclusion, particularly if AZS AWF Warszawa play conservatively after a slow start to the season. The visitors have lost two of their last five matches and may not want to risk another defeat.