Valur Women vs ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar Women: match prediction on 13 September 2026

Valur Women to win against ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar Women. The model expects 27.6 goals to Valur's 23.5, and the historical record supports that: Valur have not lost in six consecutive meetings, winning four and drawing two. That pattern persists even though ÍBV sit third in the table after one match and Valur are eighth.

Valur's recent results show a side that can score freely. In their last five games they won four, lost once, and netted 135 goals while conceding 120. The most telling figure is the 21:25 loss to Selfoss on 5 September — a rare slip in an otherwise dominant run. They have not dropped points in three of those five matches, and on two occasions they beat Fram by a combined margin of 19 goals.

ÍBV have shown a different shape. Three wins and two losses in their last five matches produced 155 goals for and 152 against. The 32:28 victory over Ka Thor on 5 September demonstrates their attacking capacity, but the 23:26 defeat away to Haukar on 25 April reveals vulnerability on the road. They have not kept a clean sheet in any of those five games.

The head-to-head record is the strongest indicator. Valur have won 17 of 19 meetings in recent years, with ÍBV claiming just two victories. The last six encounters produced four Valur wins and two draws. On 12 May ÍBV hosted Valur and lost 26:30. On 28 March Valur were at home and won 30:28. The pattern is consistent: Valur outscore ÍBV in nearly every fixture.

Current table positions tell a different story, but the sample is too small to override history. ÍBV sit third after one match, Valur eighth. Both have played only once this season. ÍBV's single win earned them two points; Valur's single draw earned none. One match does not establish a season-long hierarchy, and the model's expectation of 27.6 goals for Valur reflects their historical output rather than this season's limited data.

The prediction fails if ÍBV replicate their away form from 25 April, when they conceded three more goals than they scored against Haukar. A similar deficit against Valur, who average 27 goals per match in the model, would be difficult to recover from. The conclusion also stops holding if Valur repeat their 5 September home loss to Selfoss, where they were outscored by four goals.

It does not account for injuries or suspensions — none were found — but the historical weight is sufficient to form a view.