VfL Lübeck-Schwartau vs Potsdam: match prediction on 16 October 2026

Potsdam are the side to back at Lübeck-Schwartau's ground. The model gives them a 58% chance, and the head-to-head record supports that lean — Potsdam have won four of the last six meetings between these clubs, with only one draw and one victory for the hosts in that span. Their recent form has been steadier too: four wins from their last five compared to Lübeck-Schwartau's three wins and two losses.

League position tells a similar story. Potsdam sit fourth with 12 points from seven matches, while Lübeck-Schwartau trail in fifth with 10 points. Both sides have gone unbeaten so far, but Potsdam's additional win gives them the edge. The expected goals model puts Potsdam at 29.8 and Lübeck-Schwartau at 28, a narrow margin that still favours the visitors.

Lübeck-Schwartau have been competitive at home recently. They beat Hamm-Westfalen 33:26 in their last home fixture and won 31:28 against TV Huttenberg in September. Their only home loss in that period came 35:38 to Flensburg-Handewitt in a DHB-Pokal tie. But the visitors have shown they can win on the road — they beat Dessauer-Rosslauer 29:25 away and took a 32:25 victory at Essen in cup competition.

The recent head-to-head suggests a tight contest. On 25 February 2026, Potsdam edged through 37:36 in Lübeck-Schwartau's last home game against them. Before that, Potsdam won 34:25 in September 2025. The only time Lübeck-Schwartau took points from Potsdam in that period was the 29:29 draw in April 2024. The visitors have generally been the stronger side in these encounters.

Lübeck-Schwartau can stay in this if they control the tempo. They scored 165 goals in their last five matches — that's an average of 33 per game — and they have the firepower to stay in this one. But Potsdam's consistency, their four wins from five, and their dominance in the head-to-head give them the advantage.