Vilnius vs Alytaus: match prediction on 12 September 2026

Alytaus win on Saturday. The visitors hold a 12-4 advantage in head-to-head meetings and have won three of their last five matches, while Vilnius have taken only two victories from the same number of games. The model projects 28.8 goals for Alytaus against 27.8 for the hosts, and the projection stands.

Vilnius have won two of their last five matches and lost three, scoring 151 goals while conceding 163. They beat Granitas-karys 39-38 away on 29 April and 34-28 away on 18 April, but suffered defeats at home to the same side 28-33 on 25 April. Their most recent outings were both losses to Alytaus, 30-36 at home on 17 May and 20-28 away on 23 May.

Alytaus have won three of five and lost two, with 143 goals scored and 141 conceded. They defeated Vilnius twice in May, 28-20 at home and 36-30 away, before losing 23-33 away to HC Sviesa on 1 May. Their other results include a 28-27 home win against Pieno zvaigzdes on 22 April and a 28-31 away defeat on 19 April. They won three of five by an average of 7.2 goals.

The visitors have shown they can close out games, particularly against the side they face this weekend. In sixteen meetings over recent years they have won twelve, while Vilnius have claimed four. The last six encounters show Alytaus winning four and losing two. The most recent meeting on 23 May ended 28-20 in Alytaus' favour at their home venue. Since 2025, Alytaus have won five of six matches between the sides.

The model expects Alytaus to outscore Vilnius by one goal on average. The model rules out a draw, consistent with their all-or-nothing record this season. Vilnius must tighten up; otherwise Alytaus take it.