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Wisła Płock
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52%
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AKM vs Buran Voronezh: match prediction on 17 September 2026
AKM
Buran Voronezh
Prediction for
Win: AKM
45%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
45%
1
18%
X
37%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 15 Sep, 17:13- АКМ — 6. place, 0 points after 4 games (3 wins, 1 losses)
- Буран Воронеж — 10. place, 0 points after 3 games (2 wins, 1 losses)
- АКМ, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Буран Воронеж, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 8 games, АКМ — 3, Буран Воронеж — 5
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
AKM
LWWWL
3 wins · 2 losses
Buran Voronezh
WLWWW
4 wins · 1 loss
Head to head 10
4AKM
0Draw
6Buran Voronezh
- 28 Dec 2025AKM — Buran Voronezh1:3
- 26 Nov 2025Buran Voronezh — AKM5:4
- 6 Mar 2025AKM — Buran Voronezh2:5
- 14 Sep 2024Buran Voronezh — AKM1:2
- 19 Jan 2024Buran Voronezh — AKM1:4
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 15 Sep, 17:13AKM host Buran Voronezh on 17 September. The model favours the hosts, projecting 2.6 goals for the hosts against 2.3 for the visitors and a 45% confidence level in the home side's success.
Both teams arrive with identical records in their last five matches—four wins and one defeat—yet the context differs. AKM are unbeaten on the road, winning four straight before a 1:3 defeat to Yugra. Buran Voronezh have split their recent games between home and away, picking up 4:1 and 2:1 victories at home against Bars and CSK VVS respectively, while also winning 2:1 away at Ryazan and losing 1:2 at home to Almetyevsk.
Head-to-head history favours the visitors. Buran Voronezh have won four of the last six meetings, including a 3:1 victory at AKM's arena in December 2025 and a 5:4 thriller in November of the same year. AKM's two wins came at home against Buran Voronezh in January 2024 (4:1) and September 2024 (2:1). The pattern suggests Buran have found a way to compete at this level, but the most recent encounter ended with the hosts losing 1:3 at home—a result that may have shifted the psychological balance.
The statistical model points toward a high-scoring contest. Both teams to score carries an 84% probability, while matches with three or more goals stand at 87%. The likely scores are: 2:2 at 7%, 3:2 at 6%, and 2:1 at 6%. AKM's expected goals of 2.6 edge Buran Voronezh's 2.3, and combined with the home advantage, this creates the narrowest edge for the hosts. The 18% draw probability is low enough to suggest a result will emerge, though the closeness of the expected goals figures means any single moment could decide the outcome.
AKM's position in the table sits at seventh after four matches with three wins and one loss, while Buran Voronezh occupy fifth place with the same record across four games. The model's edge shrinks if Buran Voronezh replicate their away form from the Ryazan fixture—where they secured a 2:1 victory while conceding only once—or if the match follows the pattern of their November 2025 encounter.