Almaz vs Loko: match prediction on 12 September 2026

Loko win, and the model projects them to score 3.8 goals against Almaz's 2.3. That gap in expected output is the clearest signal available.

The head-to-head record tells the story plainly: a 7:0 thrashing on 28 February 2026. The only exception was a 2:1 home victory for Almaz on 20 February 2026. Over the last five encounters the visitors won four times, including three by a margin of two goals or more.

Almaz have won three and lost two of their last five matches, scoring 13 goals and conceding 10. Loko have won four and lost one, with 20 goals for and 12 against. The visitors are more clinical in attack and have a stronger recent run, even though Almaz have played one more competitive game this season.

The probability of a draw sits at 14%, while both teams to score is 88% and three or more goals 94%. The three most likely scorelines are 2:3, 2:4 and 1:3, all favouring Loko. xG of 2.3 for Almaz and 3.8 for Loko point to a high-scoring affair.

This conclusion stops holding if Almaz perform significantly above their recent output. The model's figures are averages across many simulations and do not account for individual match circumstances. If the home side converts more chances than usual or Loko underperform their expected goals, the visitors could drop points. A draw would suit neither side entirely, but given how Loko tend to see out games, that remains the main alternative scenario.