Amurskie Tigry vs Krylya Sovetov Moskva: match prediction on 24 September 2026

Krylya Sovetov Moskva win. The model puts both sides at 2.8 expected goals, which makes a tight contest likely, but the visitors' experience across six matches gives them the edge over a host side still finding its feet after three.

Amurskie Tigry have played fewer fixtures than either opponent in this preview. Tigry have netted 14 in three; Krylya have 10 in five.

Krylya Sovetov Moskva have been tested more thoroughly. They sit fourth on zero points after a points deduction. Their last five games produced two wins and three defeats, with a 4:3 win against Sakhalinskie Akuly and a 3:2 home victory over Red Mashine Atlant. They have struggled to keep clean sheets, conceding 13 goals in five matches.

Recent encounters have been unpredictable: Tigry won 5:0 in a friendly on 17 August, but lost 3:2 in the match immediately before that. In MHL action, Tigry won 2:1 on 12 January and 5:1 on 5 October, while Krylya Sovetov won 4:1 on 11 January and 3:0 on 4 October.

The model expects both teams to score, with an 88% probability, and places the likelihood of three or more goals at 92%. The most probable scoreline is 2:2 at 6%, followed by 2:3 and 3:2 each at 5%. The draw probability sits at 17%, which is low for a fixture where both sides are expected to find the net. The model's symmetry in expected goals—2.8 for each side—suggests a contest that could go either way, but the service pick leans toward Krylya Sovetov at 42% confidence.

Tigry's home debut could break the model. They have played every recent match away, so playing at home could shift their performance. A draw suits the visitors given how they have managed games on the road, and if Krylya Sovetov choose to protect a narrow lead rather than push for more, the match could end level. An early goal from Tigry would also change the dynamic, as their recent away form shows they can score freely when given space.