Cherepovets vs Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: match prediction on 15 October 2026

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl to win

Lokomotiv, 65%. The visitors lead the table and have dominated this fixture over the years, while Cherepovets' current momentum has historically not been enough to turn the tide against the league leaders at home.

Severstal Cherepovets have been in fine form, winning all five of their last matches without a draw. They beat SKA St Petersburg 2:0 at home on 13 October, and before that claimed victories away at Bars Kazan 4:1, Nizhny Novgorod 3:2, SKA St Petersburg 5:2, and Kunlun 2:1 away. Fifteen goals scored, six conceded — a run that has lifted them to third place from fifteen games, nine wins and six losses.

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl sit top after fourteen matches with eleven wins and three defeats. Their last five yielded four victories and one loss, the 3:4 away defeat to Dinamo Minsk on 3 October being their sole defeat. They scored sixteen goals and let in seven during that period, including a 6:1 home win over Dinamo Minsk on 10 October and a 2:0 victory away at Bars Kazan.

The head-to-head record tells a clear story. Over twenty meetings Lokomotiv have won fourteen times to Cherepovets' six. Recent results include a 2:1 win for Lokomotiv on 10 September in the KHL, and a 3:2 victory in a club friendly on 30 August 2026. Cherepovets' only success in this period came with a 2:0 home win on 28 November 2025.

Cherepovets are expected to score two goals and Lokomotiv 2.6. The draw probability is 20%, while both teams to score is 80% and three or more goals 83%. The most likely scorelines are 1:2 at 7%, 2:2 at 7%, and 1:1 at 6%. The expected goals figures suggest Lokomotiv should edge this, though a tight contest is also possible.

If Cherepovets maintain their current defensive solidity — conceding just six goals in five matches — and Lokomotiv fail to convert their higher expected goals tally, the result could shift.