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CSKA Moscow vs Salavat Ufa: match prediction on 5 October 2026
CSKA Moscow
Salavat Ufa
Prediction for
Win: CSKA Moscow
50%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
50%
1
18%
X
32%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 4 Oct, 17:45- ЦСКА — 2. place, 0 points after 12 games (9 wins, 3 losses)
- Салават Уфа — 1. place, 0 points after 11 games (6 wins, 5 losses)
- ЦСКА, last 5 games: 5 wins, 0 losses
- Салават Уфа, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 8 games, ЦСКА — 4, Салават Уфа — 4
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
CSKA Moscow
WWWLW
4 wins · 1 loss
Salavat Ufa
WLLWW
3 wins · 2 losses
Head to head 11
6CSKA Moscow
0Draw
5Salavat Ufa
- 7 Dec 2025Salavat Ufa — CSKA Moscow1:3
- 1 Dec 2025CSKA Moscow — Salavat Ufa2:3
- 23 Feb 2025Salavat Ufa — CSKA Moscow2:4
- 8 Oct 2024CSKA Moscow — Salavat Ufa2:0
- 6 Feb 2024Salavat Ufa — CSKA Moscow2:0
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 4 Oct, 17:45I see no reason to doubt CSKA Moscow at home tonight. They have won eight straight, scoring 21 goals in their last five games while conceding just nine. Salavat Ufa have lost two of their last three and are struggling to find rhythm away from home. The model puts CSKA's expected goals at 2.8 to 2.3, and the probability of three or more goals in the match sits at 88%. I back the hosts to win, with confidence at 65%.
The run of form
CSKA's winning streak stretches across five matches now, and they have not dropped a single point since the 16th of September. Their results read like a checklist of dominance: 4:3 at home against Dynamo Moscow, 4:1 away at Dinamo Minsk, 6:5 against SKA St. Petersburg, 5:0 at Lada, and 2:0 away at Khabarovsk. They have scored in every game and kept a clean sheet in two of the last five. Salavat Ufa, by contrast, have won only twice in their last five outings. They lost 2:4 at home to Novosibirsk, then 3:6 away at Sochi, before picking up 3:0 and 3:1 wins on consecutive away trips. Their last outing ended in defeat, and they have now lost two of their last three matches.
Head-to-head
The pattern suggests neither side holds a psychological edge, but CSKA's current form gives them the momentum.
The model's view
The expected goals figures point toward a high-scoring affair. CSKA Moscow are projected to score 2.8 goals, Salavat Ufa 2.3. The draw probability sits at 19%, while both teams to score comes in at 85%. The three most likely scorelines are 2:2 at 6%, 3:2 at 6%, and 2:1 at 6%. The model does not account for injuries or tactical changes, but the underlying numbers support a home victory or a closely fought draw. Neither side has reported injuries or suspensions that would alter the balance.
Where the prediction breaks
A draw suits the visitors, and given how they run the clock down in tight games, that is the main threat. Salavat Ufa have shown they can compete away from home earlier in the season, winning at Dynamo Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod in September. If they can replicate that discipline and keep the score level, CSKA's confidence could waver. If Salavat Ufa slow the tempo and frustrate the hosts, the prediction stops holding.