Fenestela vs DAB: match prediction on 24 September 2026

Fenestela are the clear favourites for this Erste Liga opener, and the gap in recent form is stark: Fenestela have taken nine points from five matches, DAB none. The expected goals figures put Fenestela at 2.5 against DAB's 4.5, which sounds counterintuitive until you consider the visitors' defensive record — they have conceded 24 goals in their last five games while scoring just one.

Fenestela's results show a side capable of both brilliance and collapse. They beat Steaua Bucuresti 6-4 away, then 4-0 in the Romanian Cup, but lost 5-0 to Gyergyoi and 5-3 to Brasov. Their goal tally is level at 17 for and 17 against, suggesting a team that attacks freely but leaves itself exposed. DAB, by contrast, have not won anywhere in 2026. Their last five matches — all away — ended 1-2, 0-7, 0-6, 0-6, and 0-3. They have not scored twice in any of those games.

The table positions tell only part of the story. Fenestela sit fifth, DAB eighth, but both have zero points after one game each. What separates them is momentum. Fenestela's three victories in five matches include wins over sides that have beaten DAB convincingly. DAB's five defeats came against MAC Ujbuda, HC 19 Humenné, Dukla Trencin, Poprad HK, and MAC Ujbuda again — opponents that Fenestela have also faced, with mixed results.

Probability figures point toward a high-scoring affair. Both teams to score sits at 91%, and three or more goals at 97%. The most likely scorelines are 2-4, 2-5, and 2-3, each around 4-5%. Those numbers suggest Fenestela will score, DAB will score, and there will be plenty of them. Fenestela's 2.5 expected goals aligns with their recent output, while DAB's 4.5 reflects the vulnerability they have shown on the road — six goals conceded in their last two matches alone.

The preview falls apart if DAB's losing streak is a blip rather than a structural problem. The visitors have not won anywhere in the current year, but their expected goals figure of 4.5 implies the model believes they will find the net. If that expectation materialises and Fenestela's defensive frailties are exposed, a draw or even a visitors' victory becomes plausible. The 13% draw probability is not negligible when one side has nothing to lose and the other has a lead to protect.