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Heilbronner Falken vs Kaufbeuren: match prediction on 20 September 2026
Heilbronner Falken
Kaufbeuren
Prediction for
Win: Kaufbeuren
91%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
3%
1
6%
X
91%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 18 Sep, 14:01- Кауфбойрен — 1. place, 0 points after 1 games (1 wins, 0 losses)
- Хайльброннер Фалькен, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Кауфбойрен, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 4 games, Хайльброннер Фалькен — 2, Кауфбойрен — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Heilbronner Falken
LLLLW
1 win · 4 losses
Kaufbeuren
WLLWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 16
7Heilbronner Falken
0Draw
9Kaufbeuren
- 3 Mar 2023Kaufbeuren — Heilbronner Falken1:8
- 16 Dec 2022Heilbronner Falken — Kaufbeuren3:2
- 11 Dec 2022Kaufbeuren — Heilbronner Falken5:1
- 18 Sep 2022Heilbronner Falken — Kaufbeuren1:2
- 7 Jan 2022Kaufbeuren — Heilbronner Falken2:3
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 18 Sep, 14:01Kaufbeuren to win. The model projects 4.5 goals for the visitors against 1 for the hosts, and the 6% draw probability confirms the gap. The projection holds. Confidence 72%.
Kaufbeuren occupy the summit after one matchday, a single victory carrying them to the top of Oberliga Süd. Heilbronner Falken sit eighth, having failed to collect points from their opening fixture. Kaufbeuren lead; Falken trail.
Heilbronner Falken's recent form offers little comfort. In five matches they have won once and lost four times, scoring just 10 goals while conceding 25. The results read like a catalogue of defensive failures: 1:2 away to Deggendorf, 2:7 at home against Erding, 3:8 away to Passau. Only the 2:1 victory over Riessersee in February provided any relief.
Kaufbeuren have been more productive. Two wins and three losses in their last five games, with 13 goals scored and 20 conceded. The 2:0 home win against Tolzer Lowen in September stands out, though the friendly results show they can be vulnerable — 3:5 at home to München Red Bulls, 1:5 away to Memmingen.
The head-to-head record shows balance. The most recent encounter ended 1:8 to Heilbronner Falken in March 2023, but that was in DEL2, a different level of competition. The earlier meetings were tighter: 3:2 and 5:2 for the hosts, 1:2 and 5:1 for Kaufbeuren.
Kaufbeuren’s 4.5 xG dwarfs Heilbronner Falken’s 1. Combined with the 91% probability of three or more goals in the match, the picture is clear. The visitors are expected to score freely.
The top three scorelines all favour Kaufbeuren. 0:4 and 1:4 each carry 7% probability, while 0:5 sits at 6%. The 62% chance that both teams score suggests Heilbronner Falken might find the net once, but the visitors will outscore them by a wide margin.
The model breaks if the home keeper produces. The model calculates from goals scored and conceded across many simulated versions of the match. It knows nothing of individual goalkeeping ability or a single match where the home side might defend deeper and frustrate the visitors.