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Hc Norilsk vs Rubin Tyumen: match prediction on 16 September 2026
Hc Norilsk
Rubin Tyumen
Prediction for
Win: Rubin Tyumen
48%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
33%
1
19%
X
48%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 14 Sep, 13:13- ХК Норильск — 22. place, 0 points after 3 games (1 wins, 2 losses)
- Рубин Тюмень — 27. place, 0 points after 3 games (1 wins, 2 losses)
- ХК Норильск, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Рубин Тюмень, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 11 games, ХК Норильск — 2, Рубин Тюмень — 9
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Hc Norilsk
LWL
1 win · 2 losses
Rubin Tyumen
WLLLW
2 wins · 3 losses
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 14 Sep, 13:13Rubin Tyumen double chance (win or draw) — 65% confidence
Rubin Tyumen have the edge here, and the numbers back that up. The model expects Tyumen to score 2.4 goals to Norilsk's 2, and the most likely scoreline is a 2:2 draw at 7%. A draw suits Tyumen — they're comfortable sitting deep when they don't have to chase.
Both sides are winless after four and three matches respectively. Norilsk sit 21st after four matches with one victory and three defeats, while Tyumen are 28th after three games with one win and two losses. Neither side has collected any points yet, which tells you more about how tight the early season is than about either team's quality. The gap at the bottom is measured in matches played, not in results.
Tyumen's recent form looks slightly sharper. They've picked up two wins in their last five games — a 2:1 victory over Ryazan and a 3:0 friendly win against Dyn. Altay — though they've also suffered three defeats.
The head-to-head favours Tyumen. Tyumen have won four of the last six encounters, including a 5:2 victory at Norilsk's home in February 2024 and a 6:3 rout in March 2024. Norilsk's only wins came in a 1:0 home victory in February 2025 and a 4:5 thriller in February 2024. Tyumen have been the stronger side in this fixture for years, and that history carries weight when two teams with similar records meet.
The model's expectations point toward goals. Both teams to score sits at 79%, and three or more goals in the match is 82%. The top three scorelines are 2:2 (7%), 1:2 (7%), and 2:1 (6%). A draw is the single most likely outcome at 19%, but Tyumen win probability is higher than Norilsk's.
Tyumen's defensive structure must hold. They've conceded in four of their last five matches, but they've also kept two clean sheets. If they can limit Norilsk's chances — Norilsk have scored in every one of their last five games — then the draw becomes more likely, and the double chance still covers. A 1:1 or 2:2 result would suit Tyumen's approach: stay compact, hit on the counter, and take the point.