Champions League
Montpellier
Skanderborg AGF
Prediction for Montpellier — Skanderborg AGF
54%
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Krasnoyarsk vs Omskie Krylia: match prediction on 23 September 2026
Krasnoyarsk
Omskie Krylia
Prediction for
Win: Omskie Krylia
46%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
36%
1
19%
X
46%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 21 Sep, 13:03- Красноярск — 29. place, 0 points after 5 games (1 wins, 4 losses)
- Омские Крылья — 22. place, 0 points after 4 games (2 wins, 2 losses)
- Красноярск, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Омские Крылья, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 10 games, Красноярск — 4, Омские Крылья — 6
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Krasnoyarsk
LLWLL
1 win · 4 losses
Omskie Krylia
WLWWW
4 wins · 1 loss
Head to head 12
6Krasnoyarsk
0Draw
6Omskie Krylia
- 18 FebKrasnoyarsk — Omskie Krylia5:2
- 23 Sep 2025Omskie Krylia — Krasnoyarsk4:2
- 14 Feb 2025Krasnoyarsk — Omskie Krylia3:4
- 6 Oct 2024Omskie Krylia — Krasnoyarsk4:3
- 18 Aug 2024Krasnoyarsk — Omskie Krylia0:2
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 21 Sep, 13:03Omskie Krylia win, 46%
Omskie Krylia, and the edge comes from their form in the last five matches. They have won three of those, nine goals for, nine against, while Krasnoyarsk managed only two victories from five games and conceded nine goals. The visitors are already showing more stability at this stage of the season.
Recent results
Krasnoyarsk's last five home games: They beat Kurhan 2-1 on 21 September and Metallurg Novokuznetsk 1-0 on 8 September, but lost to Rubin Tyumen 1-4, HC Yugra Khanty-Mansiysk 1-3, and Dyn. Altay 0-1. That is six points from five matches, with five goals scored and nine conceded. Omskie Krylia picked up nine points from their last five outings, winning against Kaluga 3-2, Ryazan 2-1, and Kurhan 3-1 in a friendly, while losing to Hc Norilsk 0-3 and AKM 1-2. The difference is clear: they are finding the net more consistently.
History between them
The head-to-head record is evenly split across six meetings. Krasnoyarsk won three times, Omskie Krylia three times. The most recent encounter was on 18 February 2026, when Krasnoyarsk won 5-2 at home. Before that, Omskie Krylia won 4-2 in September 2025, 4-3 in February 2025, and 4-3 in October 2024. The friendly in August 2024 saw Omskie Krylia win 2-0.
Table position
Both teams sit at the bottom of the VHL table. Omskie Krylia are 25th after four matches with two wins and two losses. Krasnoyarsk are 26th after six matches with two wins and four losses. Both have zero points. They are in the same boat, but Omskie Krylia have played fewer games and are already showing more wins.
What the model says
The model expects Krasnoyarsk to score 2.3 goals and Omskie Krylia 2.6. The probability of a draw is 19%, both teams to score is 83%, and three or more goals in the match is 86%. The most likely scorelines are 2-2 at 7%, 1-2 at 6%, and 2-3 at 6%. These figures point to a high-scoring game where the visitors edge it.
When this falls apart
A draw would suit the visitors if they can control the tempo and protect a narrow lead. Given how they have run matches recently, that is the main threat to this conclusion. If Krasnoyarsk start strongly and score first, the momentum could shift, and the model's expectation of a two-goal margin becomes harder to justify.