Lada vs CSKA Moscow: match prediction on 25 September 2026

CSKA Moscow are favourites to win at Lada on 25 September, backed by their five victories in seven head-to-head meetings and a form line that shows four wins from their last five matches compared to Lada's one victory in the same span.

CSKA sit second in the conference after eight matches, recording five wins and three losses with no draws. Lada occupy 10th place with just a single win and seven defeats. CSKA have won four consecutive away games, including a 4-0 shutout at Sochi and a 3-2 victory over Nizhny Novgorod, while Lada have lost six of their last seven matches, conceding 25 goals in that period.

The head-to-head record is heavily skewed. Over the past seven meetings CSKA have won five, with Lada's only victory coming 3-4 at home in November 2023. The most recent encounter ended 4-2 to CSKA in September 2025, and before that 2-4 to CSKA in December 2025.

CSKA's recent form has been strong on the road. They have won four away games in a row, scoring 13 goals and conceding just five. Their last defeat came 2-3 at home to Lokomotiv Yaroslavl on 13 September. Lada, by contrast, have lost 4-2 at home to Dinamo Minsk and 0-6 at home to Barys Astana, while their away record shows losses 3-7 to Nizhnekamsk and 2-3 to Bars Kazan. Lada have scored 11 and conceded 25 in their last five, CSKA have scored 15 and conceded 8.

The model expects Lada to score 2 goals and CSKA 3.1, with an 88% probability of three or more goals in the match and an 83% chance both teams find the net. The most likely scorelines are 2-3, 1-3 and 2-2, each at 6%. The draw probability sits at 18%, which is low relative to the rest of the field. CSKA's away record and Lada's defensive struggles make a low-scoring affair unlikely.

Certain conditions would undermine this conclusion. The model's figures are computed from goals scored and conceded over many simulated versions of the match; they do not account for sudden absences or tactical changes.