Liberec Bílí Tygři U20 vs Poruba HC U20: match prediction on 28 October 2026

Poruba are the favourites here. They have won two of their last five matches while Liberec have lost all five, and in the most recent meeting between them Poruba edged through 4:3. We expect a tight contest with expected goals of 3.2 for the hosts and 2.9 for the visitors, but Poruba's superior recent output tips the balance. A visitors' victory is possible, but the conclusion stops holding if the match drifts into a draw — the 17% probability for a stalemate is not negligible, and a drawn result would suit a side that has struggled to finish games away from home.

Liberec's form reads as flat. They have lost every one of their last five matches, conceding 26 goals while scoring just 8. The defeats included a 1:7 loss to Pardubice and a 0:2 defeat to Jihlava. They sit 16th in the ELJ table with zero points from nine matches and zero wins. There is no recovery trajectory visible in those results.

Poruba have shown they can win. In their last five outings they claimed victories over Kometa Brno 2:1 and Jihlava 6:2, though they also lost to České Budějovice 0:2, Pardubice 2:7 and Mountfield HK 1:5. They have scored 11 goals and conceded 17 in that span. The table places them 11th after nine matches with four wins and five losses, also listing zero points.

They have met twice in the past year, each team taking one victory: Liberec won 4:2 at home on 4 October 2025, and Poruba replied with a 4:3 win at their own ground on 29 November 2025. Both matches were high-scoring affairs with seven goals between them. The most recent encounter ended with the visitors holding on for a narrow success.

Our analysis suggests a 3:2 scoreline as the most likely outcome, with 3:3 and 2:2 each carrying a 5% probability. The draw stands at 17%, while both teams to score sits at 91% and three or more goals at 94%. If the match follows that pattern, Poruba's ability to score in bursts — six against Jihlava, two against Kometa — gives them the edge over a Liberec side that has rarely found the net in consecutive matches.