MAC Ujbuda vs Brasov: match prediction on 24 September 2026

MAC Ujbuda win at home, 65% confidence. The hosts have won their only Erste Liga game so far while the visitors lost theirs, and the model's expected goals point to a four-goal output from the home side.

MAC Ujbuda's start

The hosts sit sixth after one match, having beaten DAB 2:1 at home on 20 September. Their last five games show a different picture: one victory, four defeats, nine goals scored and nineteen conceded. They lost 4:5 away to Liptovský Mikuláš in a friendly and 1:5 at home against Weiden, but those were exhibition matches. League form outweighs friendlies.

Brasov's situation

The visitors are seventh after one match, having fallen 3:4 to Fenestela in their Erste Liga opener on 18 September. Their last five games read three wins and two losses, eighteen goals scored and eleven conceded. They beat Steaua Bucuresti 2:0 and Fenestela 5:3 in cup competitions, then won 6:1 at home against Sapientia U23. The cup results show attacking intent, but the league defeat suggests vulnerability.

What the history shows

Eight matches have been played between these sides in recent years. MAC Ujbuda won three, Brasov won five. The last four Erste Liga meetings produced 4:2, 0:4, 3:4 and 2:7 — all high-scoring affairs. The model expects another open match.

Expected goals and scorelines

The model projects four goals for MAC Ujbuda and 2.6 for Brasov. The draw probability sits at 15%, while both teams to score comes in at 91%. Three or more goals total is expected in 96% of simulations. The most likely scorelines are 4:2, 3:2 and 4:3, each carrying around 5% probability. These figures suggest a home victory with goals at both ends.

When the prediction fails

A draw suits the visitors — if Brasov close the game out and protect a point, the home advantage evaporates. The model knows nothing of injuries or suspensions, and neither side has team news available. If a key attacker is missing, the expected goals shift. A draw breaks the model.