Metallurg Novokuznetsk vs Kurhan: match prediction on 23 September 2026

Metallurg Novokuznetsk to win, 65% confidence

Metallurg Novokuznetsk take on Kurhan at home on 23 September, and the model points to a home victory. The expected goals figures—3.7 for Metallurg against 1.7 for the visitors—suggest a gap in offensive output that the visitors have not shown they can bridge. Kurhan have won one of five league games and sit 27th, while Metallurg sit 16th with three wins from six. Metallurg outscore visitors 10–7 in six.

Metallurg's recent results have been mixed but they have shown capacity for sharp performances. They beat HC Yugra 4:0 at home on 19 September after losing to Rubin Tyumen 2:3 two days later. Their away record in the last five matches includes a 3:0 win over HK Norilsk and a 0:1 defeat to Krasnoyarsk. The squad has added Emil Galimow, a 34-year-old ex-KHL forward who signed a one-year contract on 7 September.

Kurhan's recent form has been poor. They lost 1:2 away to Krasnoyarsk on 21 September, having beaten Hc Norilsk 2:1 at home on 18 September. Their other three matches in the last five games ended in defeats: 0:2 against Kaluga, 2:3 to AKM, and 3:4 to Ryazan. They have scored eight goals and conceded twelve, a ratio that sits below the league average. The visitors have not won away in this fixture for years, and the pattern holds.

The head-to-head record favours Metallurg heavily. In six meetings since 2020, they have won five and lost once. The most recent encounter saw Metallurg beat Kurhan 6:3 at home on 18 February 2026. Kurhan's only victory came at home against Metallurg 4:2 on 11 January 2022.

The model's most likely scorelines are 3:1, 4:1, and 3:2, each at 6% probability. Draw probability: 13%. Metallurg have scored ten goals in their last five games while conceding seven, suggesting they can find the net consistently. Kurhan's attack has produced eight goals in five matches, but their defence has let in twelve. The visitors would need to be more clinical in front of goal and tighter at the back to avoid a heavy defeat.

This conclusion stops holding if Kurhan match Metallurg's intensity from the opening period and protect their lead. The visitors have shown they can score against stronger opposition, as their 2:1 win over Hc Norilsk demonstrates. If they take an early lead and manage the game without taking risks, a draw becomes possible. Metallurg have lost matches when they let opponents in, and Kurhan have the capability to exploit that weakness if they stay disciplined. A red card or injury in the first twenty minutes would also change the dynamic.