Champions League
Montpellier
Skanderborg AGF
Prediction for Montpellier — Skanderborg AGF
54%
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Metallurg Novokuznetsk vs Omskie Krylia: match prediction on 25 September 2026
Metallurg Novokuznetsk
Omskie Krylia
Prediction for
Win: Metallurg Novokuznetsk
66%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
61%
1
17%
X
22%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 24 Sep, 13:01- Металлург Новокузнецк — 9. place, 0 points after 7 games (4 wins, 3 losses)
- Омские Крылья — 21. place, 0 points after 5 games (3 wins, 2 losses)
- Металлург Новокузнецк, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Омские Крылья, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 8 games, Металлург Новокузнецк — 6, Омские Крылья — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Metallurg Novokuznetsk
LWLWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Omskie Krylia
WLWWW
4 wins · 1 loss
Head to head 10
8Metallurg Novokuznetsk
0Draw
2Omskie Krylia
- 16 FebMetallurg Novokuznetsk — Omskie Krylia4:2
- 23 Aug 2025Omskie Krylia — Metallurg Novokuznetsk4:1
- 12 Feb 2025Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Omskie Krylia7:3
- 8 Oct 2024Omskie Krylia — Metallurg Novokuznetsk2:3
- 15 Feb 2024Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Omskie Krylia4:3
Bookmaker market
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 24 Sep, 13:01Prediction: Metallurg Novokuznetsk win. Confidence: 66%.
Home advantage and league position
Metallurg Novokuznetsk sit in 10th place after seven matches, four wins and three losses, while Omskie Krylia occupy 21st after five games, three wins and two losses. Both sides have zero points on the board. Metallurg have played two more fixtures, giving them more data to work with and a clearer picture of where they stand.
Recent form tells a different story
In their last five encounters Metallurg have won twice and lost three times, scoring 11 goals and conceding seven. Omskie Krylia have been slightly more successful recently, taking nine points from their last five with three wins and two losses, 10 goals for and nine against. The visitors have shown they can win away from home, beating Krasnoyarsk 4:1 on 23 September, but they also lost 3:0 to Norilsk on the same trip.
Head-to-head record favours the hosts
Over the last six years Metallurg have won six of eight meetings, Omskie Krylia two. The pattern holds in VHL matches specifically: Metallurg won 4:2 in February 2026, 7:3 in February 2025, 4:3 in February 2024, and 4:3 in September 2023. Omskie Krylia's only VHL victory came 2:3 the other way in October 2024. The one exception was a friendly in August 2025 when the visitors won 4:1, but friendlies carry little weight in hockey.
Model points toward a high-scoring affair
The model expects Metallurg to score 3.2 goals and Omskie Krylia 2.0. The probability of both teams scoring sits at 84%, and 90% of simulations produce three or more goals. The three most likely scorelines are 3:2, 3:1, and 2:2, each at 6%. A draw is the least likely outcome at just 17%.
What could change the picture
Metallurg added Emil Galimov to their squad on 7 September, a 34-year-old former KHL forward, but his impact remains unquantified. If Omskie Krylia adopt a defensive approach and manage to keep the game tight, they could exploit Metallurg's tendency to lose close matches at home — they dropped points in three of their last five home games. A draw would suit the visitors, and given how they have run games when behind, that is the main threat to the prediction.