Molot Perm vs Irbis: match prediction on 24 September 2026

Irbis win. The model puts their output at 4.1 goals.

Molot Perm's form has been uneven. They have won two and lost three of their last five matches. They beat Snezhnye Barsy Astana 4:1 at home on 17 September but lost to the same side 3:4 three days later. Their last home match ended 0:4 against Chaika on 21 September, a heavy defeat that followed a 5:3 away win over Mamonty Yugry on 10 September and a 2:3 away loss on 8 September. They have scored 14 goals and conceded 15 across those five games.

Irbis have been more consistent, with 19 goals scored and 15 conceded. They beat Sputnik Almetievsk 7:1 away on 19 September. Their only home result in that span was a 1:5 loss to Krasnoyarskie Rysi on 10 September, but they also won 5:3 away at Chaika on 7 September and 3:2 in a friendly at home on 19 August.

The head-to-head tells a clear story. Irbis have won five of the last six meetings. The most recent encounter on 2 December 2025 saw Irbis win 13:2 at home, and on 14 October 2025 they won 2:0 away at Molot Perm...

In the table Molot Perm sit third after five matches while Irbis are eighth after four. Both teams show zero points despite having wins. Molot Perm have played one more game than Irbis, which accounts for the gap in positions. The visitors are still in contention despite their lower standing.

The model expects Molot Perm to score 2 goals and Irbis 4.1. The probability of a draw is 13%, both teams to score is 85%, and 3 or more goals is 94%. The most likely scorelines are 1:4 at 5%, 2:4 at 5%, and 1:3 at 5%.

This conclusion stops holding if Molot Perm find a way to contain Irbis's attack for longer periods. If Molot Perm score early and hold the result, or if Irbis fail to convert their chances as they have in the past, the visitors' advantage disappears. A draw suits the visitors in terms of not losing, and given how they sometimes run the clock down, that is the main threat to this prediction.