Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres: match prediction on 13 October 2026

Montreal Canadiens win at home. The model expects them to score 3.4 goals to Buffalo's 3.1, and Montreal took 4 of 6 meetings in May 2026.

The Canadiens have been inconsistent at home, winning just 2 of 5 matches this season, but they carry momentum from their head-to-head record. Buffalo went into this fixture after a mixed run of form, winning three of their last five but also losing 0:4 to Dallas and 1:4 to Utah at home. Montreal's defensive frailties are evident — they conceded 19 goals in 5 matches — but so do the Sabres, who let in 16 in the same period.

The model's expected goals figures point toward a high-scoring affair. Both teams have shown they can find the net, with Montreal averaging 3.0 goals per game and Buffalo 2.6. The probability of both sides scoring sits at 93%, and 96% of simulated matches produce three or more goals. The most likely outcomes cluster around tight scorelines: 3:3, 3:2, and 2:3 each carry single-digit probabilities.

Montreal's home record this season tells a story of vulnerability. They beat Detroit 1:0 but lost heavily to Nashville 2:5 and Carolina 4:6. On the road they managed a 5:6 defeat to Pittsburgh and a 3:2 win over Toronto. Buffalo's home form has been similarly unpredictable — victories against Florida 5:3, Minnesota 3:2, and Chicago 4:3, but losses to Utah and Dallas.

History favours Montreal. In May's six meetings, the Canadiens won four while Buffalo claimed two. Montreal also won 6:2 away at Buffalo in May, suggesting they can impose themselves regardless of venue. Buffalo's 8:3 win at Montreal in that same period remains their most emphatic result against the Canadiens.

The table positions are confusing. Montreal sits 7th after five matches with two wins and three losses. Buffalo appears in two different positions — 7th after four games with one win, and 9th after six games with three wins. Both teams occupy the middle tier of the standings.

A draw suits neither side particularly well. Montreal's home record shows they tend to decide matches rather than settle for points, while Buffalo's away form suggests they prefer to attack. The model's 17% draw probability reflects this tendency. Montreal's higher expected goals figure and home advantage give them the edge.

This conclusion stops holding if Buffalo's recent form — three wins in their last five — proves more significant than Montreal's home advantage. If the Sabres can contain Montreal's attack and exploit their defensive weaknesses, the expected goals figures become irrelevant. A result where both teams fail to score would also overturn the model's projection.