New York Islanders vs New York Rangers: match prediction on 26 September 2026

Islanders to edge Rangers in a high-scoring affair. The visitors have won five of the last six meetings between these sides, including a 4:3 victory at Madison Square Garden just three days ago, and the model puts their expected goals at 3 to 2.9.

That win on 22 September was telling. New York Islanders came from behind to take all three points at the Rangers' home rink, with Dorofeyev scoring his first goal for the side in that match. The Rangers had already lost to the Devils the day before and failed to bounce back against the team that would beat them again. Two defeats in three games is a pattern they cannot afford to repeat.

Form has been poor for both sides. Islanders have lost four of five, Rangers three of five. But the head-to-head tells a different story. Since the start of 2026, Islanders have won five straight against their rivals, including a 5:2 demolition at home in January and a 5:0 victory in November. The Rangers have not beaten the Islanders since December 2025.

The goalkeepers are a factor. Semjon Warlamow returned from two knee operations and played in the preseason meeting against the Rangers, holding ten shots. He has not appeared since November 2024. The Islanders may rely on him to steady a defence that has conceded 14 goals in five matches. Rangers lost Chris Kreider to Montreal, which weakens their forward line.

The model expects both sides to score with 90% probability and three or more goals at 93%. The most likely scorelines are 2:2, 3:2 and 2:3, each at 5%. The draw probability sits at 18%.

The gap is small, but the momentum belongs to New York. If the Rangers find an early goal and shift the tempo, the prediction loses its footing.