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Niagara IceDogs vs Soo Greyhounds: match prediction on 16 October 2026

OHL Meridian Centre St. Catharines Hit Match page
Niagara IceDogs Soo Greyhounds

Prediction for

Win: Soo Greyhounds

53%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model

32% 1
15% X
53% 2

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 15 Oct, 00:05

Soo Greyhounds to win away at Niagara. The model puts their expected goals at 3.7 against Niagara's 3.1, and the most likely scorelines — 2:3 and 3:4 — both go their way.

The league table tells a clear story. Soo lead with six wins from eight games, while Niagara sit second with five victories, but the Greyhounds' extra win puts them a point ahead. That gap matters in a division where every result counts.

Recent form mirrors the standings. Each team has won four of their last five matches, though the margins tell different tales. Niagara scored 14 goals and conceded 13 in that run. Soo found the net 16 times while letting in 13. The difference is small, but the attack looks sharper on both sides.

The head-to-head record provides additional context. Over eight meetings the Greyhounds have won five times to Niagara's three. The most recent encounter went 6:3 to Niagara in January, but before that Soo took two straight — 5:0 and 2:1. Niagara's last home win here came in November 2024, 7:2.

The model's numbers lean heavily toward goals. Ninety-three percent probability that both teams score, 97 percent for three or more. The draw sits at just 16 percent. Three scorelines cluster around the centre: 3:3 at five percent, 2:3 and 3:4 each at four. The away win looks the most probable single outcome.

This prediction falls away if the match ends level. The 16 percent draw probability is low, but not negligible, and a stalemate would hand the points to Niagara without them needing to win.

Outcome: Soo Greyhounds away win. Confidence: 62%

Reasoning

Based on data as of 15 Oct, 00:05
  • Ниагара АйсДогз — 2. place, 0 points after 8 games (5 wins, 3 losses)
  • Су Грейхаундс — 1. place, 0 points after 8 games (6 wins, 2 losses)
  • Ниагара АйсДогз, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
  • Су Грейхаундс, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
  • Head-to-head: 8 games, Ниагара АйсДогз — 3, Су Грейхаундс — 5

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

Niagara IceDogs WLWWL 3 wins · 2 losses
Soo Greyhounds WWWLW 4 wins · 1 loss

Head to head 8

3Niagara IceDogs 0Draw 5Soo Greyhounds
All head-to-head

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+