Ottawa Senators vs New York Islanders: match prediction on 16 October 2026

Ottawa will win. They have won the last two meetings and are playing at home, where they have been strong this season. The model expects them to score 3.2 goals, and the Islanders have conceded 13 in their last five games.

The Senators have looked solid since taking over as hosts. In their last five matches they won three and lost two, scoring 14 goals while conceding 16. The 2:7 defeat to St Louis on 13 October was an outlier — before that they had won three straight, including a 4:1 away victory over New Jersey and a 3:2 home win against Nashville. The Islanders have a similar record in their last five, also three wins and two losses, but they have been more prolific at 18 goals for and 13 against.

History favours Ottawa here. In the last six meetings they have won four, with the Islanders taking two. The most recent two were decisive: Ottawa won 3:0 away in April and 3:2 at home in March. The Islanders did win two of the previous four, both away in October 2025 and November 2024, but Ottawa has not lost to them since. The visitors have not won here in seven years, which is the sort of pattern that tends to hold.

There are changes on both sides that could matter. Ottawa have a new captain in Thomas Chabot, named on 29 September after Brady Tkachuk's departure to Florida. The Islanders have had more turbulence — Vitek Vanecek was placed on waivers on 27 September, and Semyon Varlamov returned to training camp after two knee surgeries. Whether he starts is unclear.

The model gives Ottawa a slight edge with 3.2 expected goals to 2.6. The draw probability sits at 17%, while both teams to score is 89% and three or more goals 93%. The most likely scoreline is 3:2 at 6%, followed by 2:2 and 3:3 both at 5%. This suggests a tight contest where Ottawa's home strength and recent H2H momentum should be enough.

This conclusion would not hold if the Islanders find a way back into the tie. A draw suits them — they can run the clock down and take the game to overtime. If Varlamov starts and keeps them in it, or if Ottawa's defence slips after the break, the visitors could steal something. They have not won here in seven years, but they have the firepower to trouble Ottawa, who have conceded 16 goals in their last five.