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Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Perm vs Zvezda Moscow: match prediction on 13 September 2026
Perm
Zvezda Moscow
Prediction for
Win: Perm
48%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
48%
1
18%
X
33%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 11 Sep, 13:18- Пермь — 11. place, 0 points after 2 games (2 wins, 0 losses)
- Звезда Москва — 30. place, 0 points after 3 games (0 wins, 3 losses)
- Пермь, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Звезда Москва, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Head-to-head: 8 games, Пермь — 4, Звезда Москва — 4
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Perm
LLWWW
3 wins · 2 losses
Zvezda Moscow
LLLLW
1 win · 4 losses
Head to head 12
7Perm
0Draw
5Zvezda Moscow
- 13 Dec 2025Zvezda Moscow — Perm2:3
- 1 Dec 2025Perm — Zvezda Moscow1:2
- 14 Mar 2025Zvezda Moscow — Perm3:2
- 9 Sep 2024Perm — Zvezda Moscow4:5
- 19 Dec 2023Perm — Zvezda Moscow3:4
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 11 Sep, 13:18Perm win. The hosts have won both of their opening fixtures while Zvezda Moscow have lost three straight, and the table positions—5th versus 21st—reflect that gap in results.
The form lines tell the same story. Perm picked up 9 points from their last 5 outings, winning 3 and losing 2, with 14 goals scored against 12 conceded. Their most recent VHL matches were victories at home: 6:4 against Dinamo St. Petersburg and 3:2 over SKA-VMF St. Petersburg. Zvezda Moscow collected just 3 points from the same span, winning once and losing four times, scoring 9 goals while letting in 20. Their only victory came 5:4 away at Toros Neftekamsk on 11 September; the other four results were defeats, including a 0:3 loss at home to Khimik on 29 August.
The head-to-head record shows parity over the years. In 8 matches played, Perm won 4 and Zvezda Moscow won 4, with no draws. The last meeting ended 2:3 to Perm in Moscow on 13 December 2025, but before that Zvezda Moscow had won 1:2 at home on 1 December 2025 and 3:2 in March 2025. The pattern does not suggest one side dominates the other historically, which makes the current form difference more significant than the overall record.
The model expects goals from both sides. Perm are projected to score 2.6 goals, Zvezda Moscow 2.2. The probability of a draw sits at 18%, while both teams to score is 82% and over 3 goals 86%. The three most likely scorelines are 2:2 at 7%, 2:1 at 6%, and 3:2 at 6%. The model figures are averages across many simulated versions of the match and do not account for injuries or tactical changes. Perm's recent attacking output—14 goals in 5 games—suggests the 2.6 projection is plausible.
Confidence in a Perm victory is 48%. This conclusion stops holding if Zvezda Moscow improve their defensive structure, as they have conceded 20 goals in their last 5 matches while scoring just 9. The table positions could also shift if the point system changes or if additional matches are played before this fixture.