ELJ
Plzeň U20
Karlovy Vary U20
Prediction for Plzeň U20 — Karlovy Vary U20
50%
Read more
Salavat Ufa vs Spartak Moscow: match prediction on 20 September 2026
Salavat Ufa
Spartak Moscow
Prediction for
Win: Salavat Ufa
43%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
43%
1
17%
X
40%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 18 Sep, 12:46- Салават Юлаев — 3. place, 0 points after 4 games (2 wins, 2 losses)
- Спартак Москва — 2. place, 0 points after 5 games (4 wins, 1 losses)
- Салават Юлаев, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Спартак Москва, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 12 games, Салават Юлаев — 8, Спартак Москва — 4
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Salavat Ufa
WLLWW
3 wins · 2 losses
Spartak Moscow
WWWWL
4 wins · 1 loss
Head to head 17
10Salavat Ufa
0Draw
7Spartak Moscow
- 23 Apr 2025Salavat Ufa — Spartak Moscow3:2
- 21 Apr 2025Spartak Moscow — Salavat Ufa1:2
- 19 Apr 2025Salavat Ufa — Spartak Moscow4:3
- 17 Apr 2025Spartak Moscow — Salavat Ufa6:2
- 15 Apr 2025Spartak Moscow — Salavat Ufa4:2
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
More predictions
All match predictions
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 18 Sep, 12:46Salavat Ufa to win. The edge in this fixture comes from the home side's historical advantage over Spartak Moscow and the model's expectation of a high-scoring affair where the hosts have the slight edge in expected goals. The visitors arrive in fine form, but the head-to-head record and the statistical projection point towards Ufa taking all three points at their rink.
Spartak Moscow have not lost in any of their last five matches, winning them all with a goal difference of 20 to 6. Five straight wins. They sit top of the West on ten points, and there is momentum behind them going into this fixture.
Salavat Ufa sit in third place after four matches with two wins and two losses. Their recent home results show inconsistency — a 2:0 win over Nizhnekamsk on 18 September followed by a 3:4 defeat to Bars Kazan two days earlier. They scored 18 goals and conceded 14 across those two matches, but the home advantage matters in this pairing.
History favours the hosts
Over the last 12 meetings between these sides, Salavat Ufa have won eight times while Spartak Moscow have taken four victories. The playoff encounters from April 2025 were evenly matched — each side won three of six games, with results including 3:2 and 4:3 wins for Ufa at home, and 6:2 and 4:2 victories for Spartak at their own rink. That historical pattern suggests the visitors have not dominated this fixture despite their current form.
The model projects Salavat Ufa to score 3.1 goals and Spartak Moscow 3.0, with a 17 per cent probability of a draw and 91 per cent that both teams will find the net. Three or more goals are expected in 94 per cent of simulated versions of this match. The most likely scorelines are 3:2, 3:3, and 2:2, each at 5 per cent. Ufa take all three points. Spartak grind results, but the home edge holds.
A draw would suit Spartak Moscow given how they manage games, and that is where this conclusion could unravel. If Spartak control the tempo and avoid chasing the game, the projection shifts.