Snezhnye Barsy Astana vs Omskie Yastreby: match prediction on 23 September 2026

Omskie Yastreby are the clear favourites for this MHL fixture on 23 September, and Yastreby win. They have never lost to Snezhnye Barsy Astana, and a model expects them to score 4.4 goals against Astana's 1.6.

Both sides arrive with identical records—1 win, 4 defeats, 3 points—but the quality of results tells a different story. Astana's solitary victory came away at Molot Perm on 18 September with a 4:3 win, while their other four matches produced 5 goals scored and 11 conceded. Yastreby's single win was a 3:2 home success against Sibirskie Snaipery Novosibirsk on 19 September, and their remaining four matches yielded 5 goals scored and 17 conceded. The defensive frailties in both camps are evident, but Yastreby's attacking output has been marginally more consistent.

Astana have won nothing. Even when Astana hosted, they could not turn the tide, losing 3:5 in November 2025 and 0:7 in February 2025. This is not a rivalry where momentum shifts; it is a one-sided history that gives Yastreby a psychological edge before the puck drops.

The model's expectations align with that dominance. It projects 4.4 goals for Yastreby and 1.6 for Astana, a gap of nearly three goals. The probability of three or more goals in the match sits at 93%, and the most likely scorelines are 1:4, 1:3, and 1:5—each at 6%. Both teams to score carries a 78% probability, while a draw is priced at just 9%. These figures suggest a match where Yastreby attack freely and Astana struggle to contain them, with the home side perhaps pulling one back but unable to prevent a comfortable away victory.