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Sputnik Almetievsk vs Irbis: match prediction on 19 September 2026
Sputnik Almetievsk
Irbis
Prediction for
Win: Irbis
77%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
12%
1
11%
X
77%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 17 Sep, 12:08- Спутник Альметьевск — 3. place, 0 points after 1 games (1 wins, 0 losses)
- Ирбис — 8. place, 0 points after 2 games (1 wins, 1 losses)
- Спутник Альметьевск, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Ирбис, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 13 games, Спутник Альметьевск — 4, Ирбис — 9
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Sputnik Almetievsk
LWWLL
2 wins · 3 losses
Irbis
WWLLW
3 wins · 2 losses
Head to head 26
11Sputnik Almetievsk
0Draw
15Irbis
- 16 AugIrbis — Sputnik Almetievsk4:2
- 20 FebSputnik Almetievsk — Irbis3:2
- 30 JanIrbis — Sputnik Almetievsk1:2
- 9 Mar 2025Irbis — Sputnik Almetievsk4:0
- 21 Jan 2025Sputnik Almetievsk — Irbis0:3
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 17 Sep, 12:08Irbis host Sputnik Almetievsk at 11:00 UTC on 19 September, with the model backing the visitors at 77% confidence.
The model expects Irbis to score 4.5 goals against Sputnik Almetievsk's 2, and that gap is wide enough to carry them through. The visitors have dominated this fixture recently, winning 4 of the last 6 meetings, including the 4:2 friendly victory on 16 August. Sputnik sit 4th in the table after 2 games with 0 points, while Irbis are 8th after 3 games, also on 0 points.
Sputnik's last 5 matches brought 2 wins and 3 losses, with 10 goals scored and 12 conceded. Their most recent result was a 0:1 home defeat to Chaika on 17 September in MHL action. Irbis have been more active, playing 3 matches this season, and their last 5 games produced 3 wins and 2 losses with 17 goals for and 15 against. They lost 3:4 away to Reaktor on 17 September, the same day Sputnik fell at home.
The head-to-head record gives Irbis the edge. They have won 9 of 13 meetings in recent years, and the last 6 encounters show 4 victories for the visitors against 2 for Sputnik. The 4:2 friendly win in August came after Sputnik had beaten Irbis 3:2 in MHL on 20 February. The trend still points away.
The model's scoreline expectations point toward a high-scoring game. Both teams to score carries an 86% probability, and 3 or more goals in the match sits at 96%. The three most likely outcomes are 2:4, 1:4, and 2:5, each at 5%. A draw probability of just 11% suggests the model sees very little chance of the sides finishing level.
Irbis win holds only while they maintain their attacking output. The projection stands at 4.5. It relies on season averages. If Sputnik defend better than their recent form suggests, or if Irbis fail to convert their chances, the prediction collapses. The visitors have shown vulnerability in defence too, conceding 15 goals in their last 5 matches. A tight game where both sides struggle to score would push the result toward a draw, and that outcome suits neither side's current trajectory.
The match begins at 11:00 UTC on 19 September.