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Plzeň U20
Karlovy Vary U20
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Ässät vs Vaasan Sport: match prediction on 15 September 2026
Ässät
Vaasan Sport
Prediction for
Win: Ässät
67%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
67%
1
15%
X
18%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 13 Sep, 16:33- Эссет — 5. place, 0 points after 3 games (2 wins, 1 losses)
- Васа — 8. place, 0 points after 4 games (2 wins, 2 losses)
- Эссет, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Васа, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 23 games, Эссет — 13, Васа — 10
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Ässät
LWWWW
4 wins · 1 loss
Vaasan Sport
LWLWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 36
22Ässät
0Draw
14Vaasan Sport
- 27 AugÄssät — Vaasan Sport2:1
- 13 AugVaasan Sport — Ässät3:2
- 7 AugVaasan Sport — Ässät2:0
- 21 FebÄssät — Vaasan Sport4:1
- 30 Dec 2025Vaasan Sport — Ässät2:1
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 13 Sep, 16:33Ässät to win. The hosts have dominated this fixture historically — 13 victories in 23 meetings — and their current trajectory is stronger than Vaasan Sport's. The model puts Ässät's expected goals at 3.2 compared to 1.7 for the visitors, which points toward a comfortable home victory.
Ässät have won four of their last five matches, scoring 19 goals while conceding 10. Their most recent outing was a 3:2 victory over Jokerit at home on 9 September. Vaasan Sport have won only two of their last five, with 11 goals for and 17 against. Their last game was a 2:1 home win against TPS Turku on the same day. The visitors have lost three of those five matches, including a 4:0 defeat to Mikkelin Jukurit.
Head-to-head pattern
Ässät have won three of the six recorded meetings since August 2025. Vaasan Sport have won two, with one result ending level. The most recent encounter was a friendly on 27 August where Ässät won 2:1. Two earlier friendlies went to Vaasan Sport, but those were played at the visitors' ground. In league competition, Ässät won 4:1 at home in February 2026, while Vaasan Sport won 2:1 at home in December 2025.
League positions reflect the disparity. Ässät sit fifth after three matches with two wins and one loss. Vaasan Sport are eighth after four matches with two wins and two losses. Both sit level on points after early-season fixtures. The difference lies in consistency — Ässät have not dropped points in their last two home games, while Vaasan Sport have lost away to two opponents this season.
What the model says
The expected goals figures favour Ässät by a clear margin. The probability of a draw stands at 15%. Both teams to score is likely at 79%, and there is an 87% chance of three or more goals in total. The three most probable scorelines are 3:1 at 7%, 2:1 at 6%, and 3:2 at 6%. All three involve an Ässät victory.
The visitors have shown they can score — five goals against Jokerit in their last home game — but they have conceded 17 in five away from home. If they sit deep and control the tempo, a draw becomes the main threat to the prediction. A single goal from either side in the opening 20 minutes could also shift the balance, but the data does not support that scenario given Ässät's recent scoring pattern.