Tolpar vs Kuznetskie Medvedi: match prediction on 18 September 2026

Tolpar to win, 63%

Tolpar take on Kuznetskie Medvedi on 18 September at 13:30 UTC, and the numbers back the hosts despite the table. The model expects Tolpar to score 3.9 goals and Kuznetskie Medvedi 2.5, a spread that favours the hosts on paper. Tolpar have won two of the six head-to-head meetings listed, and both recent encounters in February ended 4-3 to Tolpar when they visited Kuznetskie Medvedi's rink.

Both sides have identical records in their last five matches: three wins and two losses, no draws. Tolpar's tally stands at 19 goals for and 13 against, while Kuznetskie Medvedi have scored 12 and conceded 13. Tolpar's losses came away to Sibirskie Snaipery Novosibirsk on 14 and 12 September, 3-4 and 4-5 respectively. Kuznetskie Medvedi's defeats were friendlies away to Snezhnye Barsy Astana and Sibirskie Snaipery Novosibirsk on 30 and 29 August.

The visitors have played fewer league matches—two compared to Tolpar's four—but have won both. Tolpar sit seventh in the table, Kuznetskie Medvedi second. Both sit on zero points. A common quirk of early-season point deductions.

The six recorded meetings all finished within one goal. Tolpar won 3-4 away on 14 February 2026 and 3-4 away on 13 February 2026. Visitors have lost four of six, conceding 17 goals. The pattern suggests tight contests where the home side has had the edge overall, but Tolpar have found a way in the most recent pair.

The draw probability sits at 14%, both teams to score at 90%, and three or more goals at 95%. The three most likely scorelines are 3-2 at 5%, 4-2 at 5%, and 3-3 at 4%. Those figures point toward an open game with Tolpar edging it.

A draw suits Kuznetskie Medvedi—they have won both of their league matches and could comfortably take a point away from home. If the visitors sit deep and absorb pressure, the 14% draw probability becomes the more likely outcome, and Tolpar's edge disappears. That is the main threat to the prediction.