Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators: match prediction on 24 September 2026

The head-to-head tells a different story than recent form suggests. Ottawa have won 17 of 29 meetings, Toronto 12. Toronto have not won a home meeting against Ottawa since December 2025. Toronto have lost five straight, scoring 12 and conceding 23. They lost 3:4 and 1:4 to Montreal in consecutive matches on 19 September, then fell 1:3 away at Ottawa on 15 April before 5:6 and 2:6 defeats at home to Dallas and Florida. The defence has been porous—4.6 goals conceded per game across the run. Ottawa are also winless in five, but their record is tighter. They have lost 7:14 in goals—1.4 per match compared to Toronto's 4.6. Their last match was a 2:3 away loss to Montreal on 21 September. Before that they lost four in a row to Carolina, conceding just 11 goals in those four games. The model expects 3 goals for Toronto and 3.4 for Ottawa. It gives the draw a 16% chance, both teams scoring 92%, and three or more goals 95%. The most likely scoreline is 3:3 at 5%, followed by 2:3 at 5% and 3:2 at 4%. The slight edge in expected goals and the head-to-head record point Ottawa.

Ottawa lost Brady Tkachuk to Florida, but signed Ben Hutton and Sherenko on try-out contracts. Toronto kept Morgan Rielly and brought in Sergei Bobrovsky from Florida, who saved 10 of 11 shots on debut. Neither side has made major defensive changes that would alter the balance here.

Ottawa are the pick here.