Tractor Chelyabinsk vs SKA St. Petersburg: match prediction on 25 September 2026

Tractor Chelyabinsk to win at home against SKA St. Petersburg on 25 September, confidence 44%. The prediction is based on SKA's heavy reliance on high-scoring performances and Tractor's defensive improvement at home, where they have kept games tighter despite the poor start to the season.

Recent form

Tractor Chelyabinsk have won two of their last five matches, taking six points from a possible fifteen. Their latest outing ended 2:1 against Avangard Omsk on 20 September, with both goals coming from defenders. Haukeland was praised by Gordon. The previous three games all ended in defeat at home, conceding eight goals across those fixtures.

SKA St. Petersburg have taken twelve points from five matches, winning four and losing once. Their most recent result was a 7:2 victory over Kunlun at home on 15 September. The loss came away at Spartak Moscow on 10 September, a 3:1 result that ended their run.

Head-to-head

Over the last six meetings between these sides, Tractor Chelyabinsk have won twice while SKA St. Petersburg have claimed four victories. Tractor won 4:2 at home on 18 March 2025 and 3:0 at home on 4 January 2023.

The pattern shows Tractor can compete at home, but SKA have generally dominated the encounters, particularly in high-scoring affairs.

League position

SKA St. Petersburg sit third in the Eastern Conference after six matches with five wins and one loss. Tractor Chelyabinsk occupy eleventh place with two wins and four losses.

Tractor's coach Scott Gordon faces pressure after the poor start, with general manager Alexei Volkov publicly criticising the KHL video review system on 19 September. Striker Krawzow remains sidelined with an Achilles tendon rupture sustained on 14 September, and his contract dispute continues unresolved.

Model expectations

The model projects Tractor Chelyabinsk to score 3 goals and SKA St. Petersburg to score 2.8 goals across the match. The chance of a draw is 18%, while both teams to score sits at 90%. Three or more goals are expected in 93% of simulated versions.

Most likely: 3:2, 2:2, 3:3 (each 5%). They do not account for absences or fixture congestion.

When the pick fails

If they adopt a conservative approach and limit Tractor's chances, the home side may struggle to convert their limited opportunities. The absence of Krawzow reduces their attacking options, and if SKA keep the game tight rather than open, Tractor's defensive vulnerabilities could be exposed.