Vitebsk vs Lokomotiv Orsha: match prediction on 24 September 2026

Vitebsk to win, 78% confidence. The hosts have won 16 of 22 meetings and are coming off a 3:0 victory over Lokomotiv Orsha just two days ago. Lokomotiv Orsha have lost three matches in a row, including heavy defeats, and sit 10th in the table.

Vitebsk sit third after five rounds with four wins and one loss. They have scored 17 goals and conceded 10, averaging more than three goals per game at home. Their last five matches show 12 points from 4 wins and 1 defeat, with only one loss in that period coming against Brest away. The team are unbeaten in five home games, winning four and losing one.

Lokomotiv Orsha occupy 10th place with two wins and three losses from five matches. They have scored 10 goals and conceded 21, a defensive record that has cost them dearly in recent weeks. Their last three outings have all ended in defeat — a 3:0 loss to Vitebsk, followed by 1:7 and 1:8 home defeats against Soligorsk. They have managed two wins, both against Yunost Minsk, but those came in September before the current run of poor results.

The head-to-head record tells a clear story. Vitebsk have won five of the last six meetings, including a 5:2 victory in the Belarusian Cup and a 9:5 thriller in February. Lokomotiv Orsha's only win in that span came on 20 October 2025, when they edged a 2:1 victory at home. The most recent encounter on 22 September ended 3:0 to Vitebsk, and the pattern suggests little has changed.

The model expects Vitebsk to score 3.8 goals and Lokomotiv Orsha 1.7. The draw probability sits at 13%, while both teams to score stands at 80% and 3 or more goals at 91%. The most likely scorelines are 3:1 at 6%, 4:1 at 6%, and 3:2 at 5%.