Vladivostok vs Cherepovets: match prediction on 19 September 2026

Cherepovets win

Cherepovets are the side I am backing to collect all three points in Vladivostok on 19 September. The model puts them at 2.8 expected goals against the hosts' 2.7, and the most likely scoreline is 2:3 at 5%.

Both sides are stuck in the same rut

Vladivostok and Cherepovets have identical records after five matches: one win, four defeats, no draws, three points each. Vladivostok have scored eight goals and conceded eleven; Cherepovets have managed only four goals while letting in fifteen. The hosts lost 2:3 at home to Dynamo Moscow on 17 September and 1:2 away to Nizhnekamsk three days earlier. Their only win came 4:2 against CSKA Moscow away. Cherepovets have been even more blunt, losing 0:8 to Spartak Moscow away and 0:2 at home to Dynamo Moscow. Their solitary victory was a 1:0 win over Lada at home on 7 September.

Cherepovets own the recent meetings

Vladivostok have not won a meeting in this run.

The table tells the same story

Both sides sit on three points after five games, though the standings list places them differently — Vladivostok at fourth or eighth, Cherepovets at sixth or tenth. The discrepancy in positions does not reflect a gap in results; the records are identical. What separates them is the quality of opposition faced and perhaps the margin of defeat, but on points alone they are level.

The model points to a high-scoring affair

Expected goals favour Cherepovets slightly at 2.8 to 2.7. The probability of a draw is 17%, while both teams to score stands at 88% and three or more goals at 91%. The three most likely scorelines are 2:2 at 6%, 2:3 at 5%, and 3:2 at 5%. The model does not account for injuries or tactical changes, but the figures suggest a match where both sides will attack and Cherepovets hold a marginal advantage.

When this prediction breaks

A draw suits the visitors — and given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat. If Vladivostok can keep the game tight and exploit the home advantage, a 2:2 result becomes the most likely outcome at 6%. The model's edge is small enough that a single moment of quality from either side could swing the result. I see Cherepovets winning, but only by a narrow margin.