CSK VVS vs Olympia: match prediction on 14 September 2026

Olympia have the edge here, and I see no reason to doubt that. They sit two places above CSK VVS in the table, have won twice in their last five matches while the hosts have lost every one of theirs, and have taken three of the last five head-to-head meetings. The model expects goals from both sides — 81% probability — and the most likely scorelines are 2:2, 2:1, and 3:2. Olympia win, or at least avoid defeat in a high-scoring affair.

Form tells the story

CSK VVS have not won a match in either the league or a friendly over their last five outings. They lost 2:3 at Kristall Saratov, 1:2 at Dizel, 2:4 at Tambov, 1:2 at Buran Voronezh, and 1:4 at Orsk in a friendly. They have scored seven goals and conceded fifteen, with all recent VHL matches played away from home. Olympia, by contrast, have taken six points from five games. They beat Zvezda Moscow 7:2 and Perm 1:0, but also lost 1:5 at home to Khimik, 1:4 to Dinamo St. Petersburg, and 2:3 to SKA-VMF St. Petersburg. Their recent results are mixed, but they have shown they can score heavily when they click.

Head-to-head leans away

In five meetings over the past two years, Olympia have won three while CSK VVS have claimed two. The most recent encounter ended 5:1 to CSK VVS at Olympia's ground in February, but before that Olympia won 2:0 at the hosts' stadium in October 2025 and 1:0 at home in December 2024. The pattern suggests Olympia have had the upper hand in recent years, even if the last meeting was an exception.

Table position matters

Both sides are at the bottom of the VHL after four matches each. Olympia sit 25th with three points from one win and three losses. CSK VVS are 30th with zero points from four defeats. The hosts have nothing to show for their opening month, while Olympia have already secured a victory. That difference in momentum is not trivial.

The model expects goals

Expected goals are set at 2.6 for CSK VVS and 2.0 for Olympia. The model gives an 18% chance of a draw, 81% that both teams score, and 84% that there will be three or more goals. The three most likely scorelines — 2:2, 2:1, 3:2 — all involve Olympia either drawing or winning. The model does not see a clean sheet for either side.

When the prediction breaks

This conclusion stops holding if CSK VVS find a way to defend at home after playing every recent match away, or if Olympia's two wins came against opponents significantly weaker than the opposition they face today. A draw suits the visitors — and given how they run the clock down in tight games, that is the main threat to an Olympia result.