A suggested outcome with a probability and the reasoning behind it. The calculation rests on attacking and defensive strength adjusted for opponents, recent form, head-to-head history and, where available, the bookmakers' line. A forecast is an estimate, not a promise.
Analytical forecasts on sports events based on statistical models
Prediction accuracy
51%
913 / 1782
9 de Julio Rafaela
Defensores de Belgrano VR
Prediction for 9 de Julio Rafaela — Defensores de Belgrano VR
Rionegro Aguilas
Chico
Prediction for Rionegro Aguilas — Chico
Cagliari
Inter
Prediction for Cagliari — Inter
Monaco
Marseille
Prediction for Monaco — Marseille
Lazio
Genoa
Prediction for Lazio — Genoa
Argentino Monte Maíz
Juventud Antoniana
Prediction for Argentino Monte Maíz — Juventud Antoniana
Deportivo Morón
San Miguel FC
Prediction for Deportivo Morón — San Miguel FC
Atlanta
San Martín San Juan
Prediction for Atlanta — San Martín San Juan
CA Estudiantes
Ferro Carril Oeste
Prediction for CA Estudiantes — Ferro Carril Oeste
Villa Mitre
Huracan Las Heras
Prediction for Villa Mitre — Huracan Las Heras
Peñarol Montevideo
Club Nacional
Prediction for Peñarol Montevideo — Club Nacional
Mali
Senegal
Prediction for Mali — Senegal
Samsunspor
Fenerbahce
Prediction for Samsunspor — Fenerbahce
İstanbul Başakşehir
Kasımpaşa
Prediction for İstanbul Başakşehir — Kasımpaşa
Patronato
Almagro
Prediction for Patronato — Almagro
Gimnasia Concepción
Independiente de Chivilcoy
Prediction for Gimnasia Concepción — Independiente de Chivilcoy
El Linqueño
Atletico Escobar
Prediction for El Linqueño — Atletico Escobar
All Boys
Chaco For Ever
Prediction for All Boys — Chaco For Ever
Manisa FK
BB Bodrumspor
Prediction for Manisa FK — BB Bodrumspor
Nafta
Maribor
Prediction for Nafta — Maribor
Cardinals
Pirates
Prediction for Cardinals — Pirates
Widzew Łódź
Lech Poznan
Prediction for Widzew Łódź — Lech Poznan
ADT
Sport Huancayo
Prediction for ADT — Sport Huancayo
CSKA Sofia
Cherno More Varna
Prediction for CSKA Sofia — Cherno More Varna
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
First the attacking and defensive strength of each side is worked out from matches played, adjusted for the opposition faced: goals against a bottom club and against a leader are not worth the same. Expected goals follow from those figures, and the outcome probabilities from them.
Match results from the past two years, weighted so that a recent game counts for more than one from last season. League position, head-to-head history and, in football, the average bookmakers' line. Injuries and suspensions are gathered separately and appear in the write-up.
Sixty per cent means that, were the match played many times over, the outcome would come up in roughly six cases out of ten. In four it would not — and that is not an error in the calculation but the nature of an estimate.
The calculation knows nothing that is not in the data: a coach dismissed on the eve, the weather, a side rested before a European tie. For clubs with two or three matches behind them there is not enough to go on at all, and no forecast is made.