Patronato vs Almagro: match prediction on 30 August 2026

The hosts have not lost in the last two meetings between these sides and are coming off a 2:0 victory over Atlanta, while Almagro have failed to win any of their last five matches, scoring just twice in that run.

Patronato sit 16th in the Primera Nacional table with 28 points from 26 matches, three behind 13th-placed Almagro. The gap is narrow but the momentum points one way. Patronato's recent record of one win, three draws and one loss has yielded six points from 15 available, with 10 goals scored and 11 conceded. Almagro, meanwhile, have taken only three points from their last five games, with goals at 0:0 against Colegiales, 1:1 away at Quilmes and 1:1 at home against Midland, but losses away at Deportivo Morón and at home to Gimnasia Y Tiro.

The head-to-head record over the past few years tells a mixed story—five matches played, Patronato won two, Almagro won two, and one ended level. But the last two meetings favour the hosts: a 0:1 win for Patronato away at Almagro on 11 April 2026, and a 0:0 draw at home on 28 September 2025. Almagro won both encounters in 2023 and May 2025, but those results sit further back. Patronato's disciplinary record raises questions—Federico Bravo has one red card and seven yellow cards, S. Piccioni one red and six yellows, and F. Meritello picked up a red card on 15 August 2026. Almagro's M. Benegas leads their yellow card count with eight, but no recent red cards for the visitors.

The model predicts Patronato to score 1.3 goals and Almagro 0.7, with a 29% probability for a draw and 35% for both teams to score. The most likely scorelines are 1:0 at 18%, 0:0 at 14%, and 1:1 at 12%. Patronato's goal distribution shows a peak in the 31-45 minute period at 25%, while they concede heavily between 46-75 minutes, accounting for 46% of goals against. Almagro's attacking threat comes later—24% of their goals arrive in the 46-60 minute window and 33% after 76 minutes. Their defensive record is more even across periods, with 17% of goals conceded in each quarter of the match.

Patronato average 5.2 corners per game compared to Almagro's 3.2, and while Almagro generate more attacks—96.5 versus 64.7—Patronato's shot accuracy sits at 38% against 49%. The visitors' higher shot accuracy does not translate into results when they cannot convert chances, as their three draws and two losses in five games demonstrate.

The match kicks off at 18:30 UTC on 30 August 2026. Patronato need a win to close the gap on Almagro, but the hosts have shown a tendency to grind out results rather than dominate, with 13 draws in 26 matches accounting for half their points total. Almagro's 11 losses suggest they are vulnerable away from home, and Patronato's recent clean sheet against Atlanta provides a template for what could happen here.