New Zealand vs Australia: match prediction on 10 October 2026

New Zealand are clear favourites against Australia on Saturday, and I see no reason to doubt that. The All Blacks have won every one of the last six meetings, including three of the four Rugby Championship fixtures this season, and the model puts their expected points at 34.3 to Australia's 24.1. A home victory is the most likely outcome, with 65% confidence.

The table tells one story and the last five matches another. New Zealand sit second in the Rugby Championship with 15 points from three games, all victories, while Australia are third with just 8 points from three matches, one win and two defeats. Yet the recent run of fixtures shows a different pattern. New Zealand have taken 6 points from their last five games, winning twice and losing three times, all away from home. Australia have been far more consistent, claiming 13 points from four wins and a draw in their last five outings.

That inconsistency in New Zealand's form is offset by something more reliable. The head-to-head record is absolute. Six matches, six wins for New Zealand, zero for Australia. The margins have been comfortable on most occasions. The 38-7 victory in July 2023 was the widest, but even the closest contest, the 23-20 result in August 2023, was decided by three points. Australia have not won here in seven years, and the data does not suggest that is about to change.

The model's expectations align with that dominance. New Zealand are projected to score 34.3 points on average, Australia 24.1. The draw probability sits at 0%, and the chance of three or more total points being scored is also listed at 0%. Those figures come from goals scored and conceded over many simulated versions of the match. They do not account for injuries or fixture congestion, but neither side has reported any absences that would alter the balance.

A New Zealand win stops holding if Australia manage to control the tempo and keep the score tight. They have shown they can do that against weaker opposition, beating Japan 56-17 at home and 35-32 away. The threat is that Australia run the clock down and force a result outside the model's parameters. But given the historical record and the current standings, that scenario is the exception, not the rule.