Stade Toulousain vs Bordeaux Begles: match prediction on 13 September 2026

Stade Toulousain are favourite to win at home against Bordeaux Begles on 13 September 2026, despite both sides arriving with identical recent records of three wins and two losses in their last five matches. The model expects Toulousain to score 37.8 points to Bordeaux-Bègles' 22, and that expectation holds only if the hosts can translate their historical home strength into performance after their opening-round defeat.

Opening Round Results

Toulousain sit 12th after a 27-30 away defeat to Rochelais. Both sides have played one match each in the current season, but the gap in confidence is already visible.

Recent Form

Over their last five matches before this fixture, both teams have won three and lost two. Toulousain scored 185 points while conceding 129, Bordeaux Begles 195 to 117. Bordeaux won 45-10; Toulousain lost 27-30. Neither side has drawn a match in that five-game window, both sides are playing for points, not a draw.

Head-to-Head

Bordeaux Begles have won four of the last six meetings between these sides, with Toulousain taking two victories. The most recent encounter ended 30-15 to Bordeaux-Bègles in the European Rugby Champions Cup on 12 April 2026. Toulousain's last win came at home on 12 October 2025, when they defeated Bordeaux-Bègles 56-13. The visitors have dominated this fixture in recent years.

Model Expectations

The statistical model projects Toulousain to outscore Bordeaux Begles 37.8 to 22. The draw probability sits at 0%. These figures suggest a one-sided contest.

Conditions for Failure

This conclusion stops holding if Bordeaux Begles carry their opening-round momentum into this fixture, or if Toulousain fail to respond to their home defeat. The visitors have won four of the last six meetings and will not fear playing away at Stade Toulousain. A second consecutive loss for the hosts would place them in serious trouble early in the season.