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Vannes vs Section Paloise: match prediction on 3 October 2026

Top 14 Stade de la Rabine Vannes Hit Match page
Vannes Section Paloise

Prediction for

Win: Section Paloise

73%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model

27% 1
73% 2

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 1 Oct, 15:50

Section Paloise extend undefeated run with win over Vannes

Section Paloise secured a victory over Vannes in the Top 14, maintaining their position in the upper half of the table while the hosts remained winless. The result moved Section Paloise further ahead in third place on 14 points, while Vannes stayed at the bottom of the standings with zero points from four matches.

The visitors arrived in Calvados with a contrasting record, having won three of their previous four fixtures. Section Paloise had scored 192 points and conceded 148 in that span, including a 70-28 demolition of Bayonnais and a 39-17 victory over Stade Rochelais. Vannes, meanwhile, had lost four consecutive league games, scoring 83 points and conceding 126. Their only recent success was an 18-14 win against Provence Rugby in the Pro D2 on 6 June 2026.

The head-to-head record offered little encouragement for the home side. Section Paloise had won both meetings in the past two years: a 52-26 victory at Vannes on 31 May 2025 and a 48-24 win at home on 28 December 2024. A statistical model had predicted a wide margin, estimating 13 goals for Vannes and 49.1 for Section Paloise, though the actual outcome relied on the visitors' ability to convert their dominance into points on the day.

The result leaves Section Paloise in third place with 14 points, while Vannes remain in 14th position with no points after four rounds. The visitors' form since the start of the season—three wins from four—contrasts sharply with Vannes' winless campaign. The gap in quality evident in the recent meetings appears to have held firm, as Section Paloise continued their ascent while the hosts struggled to find a pathway to their first point of the campaign.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 1 Oct, 15:50
  • Ванн — 14. place, 0 points after 4 games (0 wins, 4 losses)
  • Сексьон Палоз — 3. place, 14 points after 4 games (3 wins, 1 losses)
  • Ванн, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
  • Сексьон Палоз, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
  • Head-to-head: 2 games, Ванн — 0, Сексьон Палоз — 2

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

Vannes LLLLL 5 losses
Section Paloise LWWWW 4 wins · 1 loss

Head to head 2

0Vannes 0Draw 2Section Paloise
All head-to-head

Bookmaker market

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+