Belgium Women — Germany Women: match prediction

Germany take this fixture on the back of a 3-0 victory over Belgium in June, and their historical superiority remains intact. The visitors have won three of the four meetings since 2021, Belgium's recent form—three wins and two losses across five matches—looks stronger on paper, but those victories came against Portugal, Spain, and the Netherlands, while their defeats to Azerbaijan and Romania exposed defensive vulnerabilities. Germany's two wins over Turkey and Latvia were followed by three losses to Poland, Hungary, and Slovenia, suggesting inconsistency on both sides.

The model projects Belgium at 1.9 expected goals and Germany at 1.8, a near-even split. Yet the probability figures paint a sharper picture: 0% for a draw, 0% for both teams to score, and 0% for three or more goals in total. Those numbers point to a tight, low-scoring affair where one mistake could decide the outcome. Germany's defensive record in the head-to-head—keeping clean sheets in two of their four victories—gives them the edge in such a scenario.

Belgium have struggled to contain stronger opposition recently. Their 3-2 win away to the Netherlands was followed by a 0-3 loss to Azerbaijan and a 0-3 defeat at home to Romania. Germany showed similar vulnerability, losing 0-3 to Poland and 0-3 to Hungary in consecutive matches. Both sides have conceded heavily against mid-table opposition, but Germany's ability to shut down Belgium in previous encounters—particularly the 3-0 and 3-1 results—suggests they know how to exploit Belgian weaknesses.

The visitors have not failed to score in three of their five recent matches. Germany's 1.8 expected goals figure aligns with their ability to find the net against weaker opposition, as seen in their 3-1 victories over Turkey and Latvia. Belgium's 1.9 expectation reflects their attacking output against similarly ranked teams, but the model's 0% probability for both teams scoring indicates the model predicts a one-sided affair despite the close expected goals figures.

The match could also pivot if Belgium's attacking momentum from the Netherlands game carries through, but the head-to-head record and model projections suggest Germany remain the favourites.