Champions League
Montpellier
Skanderborg AGF
Prediction for Montpellier — Skanderborg AGF
54%
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Germany Women vs Turkey Women: match prediction on 3 September 2026
Germany Women
Turkey Women
Prediction for
Win: Turkey Women
78%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
22%
1
78%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 3 Sep, 08:33- Германия Женщины, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Женская сборная Турции, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 5 games, Германия Женщины — 1, Женская сборная Турции — 4
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Germany Women
LWLWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Turkey Women
WWWWW
5 wins
Head to head 7
1Germany Women
0Draw
6Turkey Women
- 26 AugTurkey Women — Germany Women1:3
- 20 JunTurkey Women — Germany Women3:2
- 29 May 2024Germany Women — Turkey Women1:3
- 24 Aug 2023Turkey Women — Germany Women3:0
- 4 Oct 2022Turkey Women — Germany Women3:0
Bookmaker market
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 3 Sep, 08:33Turkey Women to win the match. The model favours Turkey to edge the sets. The model gives the draw a zero per cent chance. That figure does not come from sentiment — it is a direct output of the simulation. The simulation ignores injuries and scheduling. The only condition that would overturn this conclusion is a Turkey loss in straight sets, something the model does not factor in.
Germany's recent record reads 3 wins and 2 defeats across five matches, giving them 9 points from 15 available. They have won 3-2 away to Belgium on 1 September, but that result came after a 0-3 home defeat to Hungary and a 0-3 away loss to Poland. Their only victory in the last five at home was against Latvia on 23 August. The away win against Latvia on 23 August (3-1) and the away triumph over Turkey on 26 August (3-1) are the other two results. They have scored 9 sets and conceded 10.
Turkey have won 4 of their last 5 matches, collecting 12 points. Their sole defeat came 2-3 away to Poland on 28 August. Before that they beat Greece 3-1 at home on 27 August, Serbia 3-1 at home on 29 August, Italy 3-0 away on 30 August, and Azerbaijan 3-0 at home on 1 September. They have scored 14 sets and conceded only 5. The run of clean sheets against Azerbaijan and Italy suggests defensive stability that Germany have not matched in their own recent outings.
Turkey won 3-2 in June 2026 and 3-0 in August 2023, while Germany responded with a 3-1 victory on 26 August 2026. The earlier results include a 1-3 loss for Germany in May 2024, a 3-0 defeat in October 2022, and another 0-3 loss in June 2022. The most recent encounter went Germany's way, but the overall balance remains even.
The model's expected set totals — 1.2 for Germany and 1.8 for Turkey — point to a match decided in four sets. The draw probability of zero per cent and the zero per cent figure for three or more sets suggest the simulation does not expect a five-set match. Neither side is expected to drop a set cleanly, which aligns with the tight head-to-head record.
A straight-sets victory for Turkey would break the model's expectation. The simulation assumes a competitive match where both sides take at least one set each, but if Turkey overwhelms Germany early and closes the match without dropping a set, the conclusion no longer holds.