Netherlands Women — Slovenia Women: match prediction

Slovenia are the side to back on Sunday, and the case rests on their better recent results and the model's slight edge in expected goals. They have won three of five, Netherlands two. The model expects Slovenia 1.8 goals to Netherlands 1.6. That margin is not large, but it is consistent with what the last five matches show.

Netherlands have been inconsistent. They beat Azerbaijan 3:1 away on 28 August, then lost to Belgium 2:3 at home two days later. A 3:0 win over Spain followed, then a 0:3 defeat in Portugal, and a 2:3 loss at home to Romania. Ten goals scored, ten conceded. Two wins, three defeats. The pattern is one of flashes without consistency.

Slovenia's trajectory looks different. Three victories in five, including a 3:0 win over Hungary at home on 28 August. They lost to Latvia 2:3 away, then to Poland 0:3 away, but bounced back with a 3:1 win in Turkey and a 3:0 victory over Germany away. Eleven goals scored, seven conceded.

The model gives Slovenia 1.8 expected goals to Netherlands' 1.6. These figures do not guarantee a result. Slovenia have the momentum and the model favours them.

A Slovenia win stops holding if Netherlands find a way to contain their attack. They have shown they can score against weaker opposition, as the 3:1 against Azerbaijan demonstrated. If they replicate that performance here, the model's expectation shifts. The margin is narrow enough for that to happen.

• Netherlands: 2 wins, 3 losses, 10 goals for, 10 against in last five
• Slovenia: 3 wins, 2 losses, 11 goals for, 7 against in last five
• Model expects Slovenia 1.8 goals, Netherlands 1.6

Confidence in Slovenia: 61%.