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TUTO vs VaLePa: match prediction on 20 October 2026

Mestaruusliiga Kupittaan palloiluhalli Turku Pending Match page
TUTO VaLePa

Prediction for

Win: TUTO

62%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model

62% 1
38% 2

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 18 Oct, 16:45

VaLePa are tipped to win. The visitors have won 13 of 21 meetings in recent years and arrive with momentum, while TUTO have lost three of their last five and are without a key attacker for three to four weeks with a thigh injury.

VaLePa sit top of the Mestaruusliiga after one match, having taken three points from a single win. Their last five outings produced three victories and two defeats, with 10 goals scored and 8 conceded. They came through 3:0 away at Savo on 17 October 2026, and before that beat Savo 3:2 at home on 1 April. Their recent form shows they can score freely and keep clean sheets when required.

TUTO have struggled more recently. Their last five matches brought two wins and three defeats, with 8 goals for and 12 against. They lost 0:3 both home and away to Hurrikaani in early April, and while they managed a 3:2 victory at home on 29 March, they also fell 2:3 away to the same side on 28 March. Their only win in that run came 3:1 away at Loimu on 14 March. The pattern suggests inconsistency, particularly in defence.

The head-to-head record favours VaLePa. Over 21 matches in recent years the visitors have won 13 times while TUTO have claimed 8. The most recent meeting ended 3:0 to VaLePa at their own ground on 6 March 2026. Before that, TUTO won 3:1 at home on 17 January 2026. The last six fixtures show VaLePa winning three and TUTO winning three, but VaLePa's away win in March was decisive.

VaLePa are projected to score 2.0 goals and TUTO 2.2, with a low chance of a draw and a low chance of both teams scoring. The figures point to a one-sided encounter where VaLePa score more than TUTO. The absence of a key player, sidelined for three to four weeks, removes an attacker from TUTO's options.

That view changes if TUTO find a way to contain VaLePa's attack and exploit the visitors' occasional vulnerability. VaLePa have conceded 8 goals in their last five matches, so if TUTO can capitalise on those moments, the expectation of a straightforward away win could unravel.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 18 Oct, 16:45
  • Валепа — 1. place, 3 points after 1 games (1 wins, 0 losses)
  • ТУТО, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
  • Валепа, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
  • Head-to-head: 21 games, ТУТО — 8, Валепа — 13

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

TUTO WLWLL 2 wins · 3 losses
VaLePa LLWWW 3 wins · 2 losses

Head to head 23

8TUTO 0Draw 15VaLePa
All head-to-head

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+